Novozymes - catching the cellulosic wave early?

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Novozymes, the Danish biomass division of which concentrates on next generation cellulosic biofuels (and is thought to be ahead of everyone else) fell 14 to 532 on profit-taking after the stock rose yesterday, when UBS raised its target price for the group to 600 dkr from 552 dkr following the group's strong first-quarter report.

UBS is compared to Danish Jyske Bank earlier this year, much more upbeat about Novozymes - raising its 2007, 2008 and 2009 EBIT forecasts by 10 pct, 3 pct and 3 pct respectively.

The big picture is that worldwide, concerns about biofuels and their environmental impact appear to be rising rather than diminishing. Already in Europe, plans are underway by the Dutch to establish sustainability guidelines which are almost certainly going to reduce their import from developing countries. This follows the recent admission by EU officials that there was no system in place to tell whether biofuels had been imported (and from non-sustainable sources) from outside of Europe or not.

In the medium to long run, I believe these concerns point to cellulosic biofuels. Nevertheless, the hard questions remain;

when will they be available?

and at what price?

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