The Andersons, whose ethanol division is involved in the construction of two ethanol plants in Indiana and Michigan that, when completed, will collectively be capable of producing 165 million gallons of ethanol, has just dived on a profit warning, below the Wall Street average, leading to a downgrade.

There is though potential help on hand for all US-based ethanol companies - the summer driving season, which is supposed to kick in around mid-June. And some think that this may lead to $4 a gallon gasoline - see this piece on Bloomberg. So theoretically, the increased demand for fuel in the absence of adequate supply ought to boost the asking price for blended ethanol - but is that right?

Well, maybe not. The futures market is not yet anticipating higher ethanol prices throughout the summer - the peak appears to be now, not in June, July or August. Of course, this would all change very rapidly in the event of major unrest, or worse, a new war in the Middle East . . .

I have the occasional unsubstantiated fear that the Chinese curse of "interesting times" is fast approaching us, or a sustained period of "unknown unknowns" ad Donald Rumsfeld used to say - or even "Black Swans", as described by by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his recently published book, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable".

Yet if there's one positive that emerges from any number of potential threats to the world's peace and stability this summer, I just can't see alternative energy emerging on the losing side.