Oil prices - what do they really tell us about the future?

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Speaking on Al-Jazeera TV earlier today, I was asked about high oil prices, were they just about economics and what can be done about them?

I made a few points;

i) Unlike the 1970s, high oil prices today are largely demand-driven not producer supply constrained - i.e. OPEC
ii) Some new oil discoveries had been made in Brazil and there may be much more in Iraq and the North Sea, but they weren't enough to meet projected additional demand combined with declining output in older fields in good time
iii) Oil shocks in the 70s largely banished oil from power generation (although, interestingly, not in today's Iraq) - higher oil prices combined with energy security and environmental concerns this time are just starting to electrify the road transport sector

This last point is what we're most interested in. There really is some scaling up going on of hybrid vehicle production and the electric range of those vehicles is rising fast too.

But sometimes I think the price of oil has been overrated so far on its impact on alternative energy. Economists have after all, been very surprised at how resilient the global economy is to higher oil prices - just two years ago, many would have forecast an outright recession with oil at $100 a barrel. And oil when refined into petrol, is still relatively cheap even in a high taxing country like the UK. A recent 300 mile round road trip cost me all of £45 to carry 2 passengers. The rail fare would easily have cost double that, not to mention taxis and expensive drinks and sandwiches !

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