May 2008 Archives

Top 5 Gainers

Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 21.26%

Energy Conversion Devices (MM) NASDAQ:ENER Solar 16.05%

Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 14.35%

Edenenergy Fpo ASX:EDE DiversifiedAltE 13.51%

Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 13.16%


Top 5 Losers

Eop Biodiesel O.N. XE:E2B Biodiesel -11.83%

Verbio Ver.Bioenergie On XE:VBK Biodiesel -11.36%

Helius Eng LSE:HEGY Biomass -8.70%

Dyesol Ltd Fpo ASX:DYE Solar -7.69%

Jackgreen Fpo ASX:JGL DiversifiedAltE -7.14%

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I quite understand why some people are dubious about the roll-out of hybrid electric cars catching on. They have memories of the fuel cell super hype that patently never materialised. After all, if one had paid attention to the experts in the late 1990s, by rights, our streets should be full of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by now. But anyone in any doubt about the speed of technological adaptation to hybrid cars ought to read this article in the Washington Post.

Sanyo Electric and Volkswagen, the 2 behemoths of their respective lithium battery and auto industries, are joining forces to begin the mass production from 2009 of vehicle hybrid batteries. And here's how fast the market is anticipated to grow;

"By 2015, Sanyo aims to boost production capacity to 10 million cells a month, enough for 1.7 to 1.8 million cars. That would give it a share of about 40 percent of a global hybrid market that Sanyo estimates at 4 to 4.5 million vehicles by mid-decade. It includes rechargeable plug-in hybrid vehicles, which Sanyo hopes to supply from 2011."

Considering  that it took 10 years for the Toyota Prius to produce and sell one million units, 4 to 4.5 million hybrids a year is a big deal indeed. So keep your eyes on the energy storage stocks, who are potentially big players in this nascent market.

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Top 5 Gainers

Dynetek Industries Com Npv TSE:DNK EnergyStorage 14.86%

Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 13.33%

Satcon Technology (MM) NASDAQ:SATC DiversifiedAltE 7.78%

Jackgreen Fpo ASX:JGL DiversifiedAltE 7.69%

Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 5.26%


Bottom 5 Losers

Renewable Energy NK 1 XE:R3Q Solar -17.26%

Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar -11.02%

Trina Solar Ltd Adr NYSE:TSL Solar -9.55%

Evergreen Solar (MM) NASDAQ:ESLR Solar -9.41%

Hydrogenics Corp Com Npv TSE:HYG FuelCells -9.30%

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Top 5 Gainers

Beacon Power (MM) NASDAQ:BCON EnergyStorage 17.65%

Run of River Power Inc. (Tier1) TSX:ROR DiversifiedAltE 15.38%

Dynetek Industries Com Npv TSE:DNK EnergyStorage 10.45%

Renesola LSE:SOLA Solar 9.10%

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 8.33%


Bottom 5 Losers

Schmack Biogas NA O.N. XE:SB1 Biogas -17.30%

Pacific Ethanol - Commonstock (MM) NASDAQ:PEIX Bioethanol -12.86%

Green Plains Renewable Energy (MM) NASDAQ:GPRE Bioethanol -10.47%

Sichuan Minjiang H 'a'cny1 SHX:600131 Hydro -10.05%

Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE -9.52%

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Top 5 Gainers

Solco Ltd Fpo ASX:SOO Solar 13.73%

Green Rock Fpo ASX:GRK Geothermal 10.00%

Dyesol Ltd Fpo ASX:DYE Solar 7.26%

Torrens EN Fpo ASX:TEY Geothermal 5.88%

Carmanah Techs Cor Com Npv TSE:CMH Solar 4.30%


Bottom 5 Losers

Sichuan Minjiang H 'a'cny1 SHX:600131 Hydro -10.00%

Eop Biodiesel O.N. XE:E2B Biodiesel -8.84%

Repower Systems Ag XE:RPW Wind -8.22%

Biopetrol Inds Inh.SF 1 XE:B2I Biodiesel -7.52%

ECODIESEL ON NM BOV:ECOD3 Biodiesel -6.52%

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Apart from regretting the terrible loss of life, some are now starting to wonder if China's massive hydrpower expansion plans - an additional 170 GW by 2020 - will be scaled back in the face of the earthquake. No dams have actually burst, but cracks were found in one major dam in Sichuan province and allegedly, according to this wiki, 391 other dams. It seems to be the smaller and possibly older, dams that  are most vulnerable.

China's hydropower plans may be small compared to their coal-plant construction - an addtional 91 GW last year alone. Yet their vast hydropower expansion is completely without precedent in the history of the world. If you look round the globe, it tends to be that the ideal sites for hydro assets were originally created by tectonic activity - i.e. mountain ranges with deep gorges. Today of course, you just want those locations to be dormant. A quick look at this map of Quake Epicentres in 1963 - 1998 tells you that China is far from quiescent in earthquake activity. And at 7.8 on the Richter scale, this was their largest earthquake in 58 years.

Ultimately, all dams can potentially fail, because it is impossible to build something that can last forever. So repairs to cracks in the concrete structure has be factored in at some point in the future. I suspect this happens quite often and we don't hear much about it. The bottom line is, cracks in dams are - and have always been - a problem for the hydropower industry. But they are not an  insurmountable one. And my guess is that China's thirst for at least some clean power is simply too great to scale back the hydro programme in favour of coal.

And one final point. It's erroneous to believe that hydropower is uniquely vulnerable to earthquakes.  Japan's experience of  an earthquake-damaged nuclear reactor last year created a spike in the price of Liquefied Natural Gas for some time in the Pacific Basin market.

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Ok, sorry I've been a bit remiss with posting the last couple of days. I'm in France - the Nogaro circuit - having just witnessed one of the unusual events in the alternative energy world, the Shell Eco-marathon. A competition, on a race track, between tiny 4 wheeled vehicles to see who can get the greatest mileage out of 1 litre of fuel.

IMG_0036.JPGThe surprise to some of you will be that you can actually go a long way. The record is a staggering 3,400 km. The trick, obiviously, is to reduce weight to an absolute minimum.



















And to say that these vehicles, noddy cars really, are flimsy, is an understatement. What you are looking at here is a very thin plastic body shell.

IMG_0037.JPGStill, if the main emphasis of motor manufacturing moves from crash survival to
crash avoidance, then getting rid of a lot of weighty safety features creates masses of energy efficiency. And don't think that a lot of progress is being made towards this. I was suprised how few people at the event, had heard of the Loremo, going  into production in 2010, a car that promises 120 mpg.






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Pacific Ethanol, for some the 2005/06 poster child of the ethanol boom, complete with a few famous investors like Bill Gates, has turned in much better than expected Q1 results and the market likes it. PE today rose by 10% and a staggering 60% yesterday.

According to Forbes, for the first quarter of 2008, PE lost $35.2 million, or 90 cents per share, compared earnings of $3 million, or 5 cents per share, a year ago. However, excluding a one-time impairment charge of 96 cents, the company posted an adjusted first-quarter profit of 6 cents per share.

What's interesting is how Verasun and Xethanol have done well too. Xethanol can point to some recently improving results and Verasun seems to have been dragged off the bottom by the groundswell of Pacific Ethanol sentiment.

The thing is though, it's hard to see this powerful US mini-rally of ethanol stocks sustaining. Nothing that much has really changed vis a vis the uncompetitiveness of corn-based ethanol to other alternatives. A very useful  and succinct post here on Motley Fool by Toby Shute - Pacific Ethanol: Not Dead Yet - is well worth a read.

The odds are that this might be more of a bounce than a comeback.

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Hansen Transmissions International, the Belgium-based manufacturer of wind turbine gearboxes, has just turned in an 18% growth in full-year earnings. As has just been reported on Reuters, in the year ended March 31st, the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to 61 million euros and revenue rose 26 percent to 421 million euros. Actually, whilst that's good, I'd say that that was a rate of growth in line with the global wind industry.


Where they start to look much more impressive is in their projections for next year. The company said it has a strong order book until December 2009 and is targeting revenue growth of about 50 percent in the 2009 financial year. I doubt that wind industry will be growing that fast in the next 12 months, so how are they going to achieve that kind of revenue growth?


Belgium may not be the world's most exciting country, but since its acquisition by Suzlon, Hansen has become a a company with the finances to think big. Of note in particular, are their expansion plans in China and India - something most West European wind firms have been slow on the uptake with.  Hansen, or rather Suzlon Energy, has made - and is making - big  investments to expand capacity as measured in megawatts of gearboxes, both at home and abroad;

In Lommel, Belgium

Hansen has just finished is expanding the facility’s manufacturing capabilities to up to 6,000MW from 2,200MW.

In Coimbatore, India

By April 2011, this new site will have a yearly production capacity of 5,000 MW of gearboxes

In China

by April 2011, Hansen's plant is expected to have a yearly production capacity of up to 3,000MW.

Margins in European wind turbine manufacturing are quite high at the moment, until the strong euro starts to bite into those exports. But Hansen's USP is that it is in the sweetspot of a component shortage for which there are very few competitors. That's why Suzlon's purchase of Hansen looks smarter and smarter as times goes on.

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THE GAINERS

Millennium Cell Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:MCEL FuelCells 37.61%
Powerfilm Regs LSE:PFLM Solar 26.54%
Renova LSE:RVA Bioethanol 17.39%
Renesola LSE:SOLA Solar 17.29%
Hydrogenics Corp Com Npv TSE:HYG FuelCells 15.28%
Jackgreen Fpo ASX:JGL DiversifiedAltE 13.40%
Spire (MM) NASDAQ:SPIR Solar 12.14%
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 11.71%

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THE GAINERS

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