April 2008 Archives

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No question, Protonex is having a good April. They have just won a $3.6m order from the US Army for its Pulse M250 portable fuel cells, just two weeks after landing a $1.6m deal to develop fuel cells for the US Navy's UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). Fuel Cells have been for almost everyone, a huge disappointment. What is fascinating is how keen the US Military is to deploy them. This is one of the rare and not fully appreciated success stories for fuel cells in recent times and I would venture, in the years to come.

Soldiers - especially infantrymen - are increasingly carrying a lot of electronic kit with them and they need power. These gadgets might include Night Vision Goggles, laptops, radios, mobile phones (for backup),  micro and small UAVs, laser target designators, telescopic sights etc.

There is however only so much weight an infantryman can carry in the field. Hence the demand for portable fuel cells which have a higher energy density per kilo - around 350 watts - than batteries. The nature of warfare - particularly the low intensity, discretely kinetic kind to win hearts and minds like in Iraq and Afghanistan - is shifting the application of force from the huge weapons platforms of the past to the grunt on the ground. It's much easier and cheaper to launch a portable UAV to look over the hill than request air recon from a jet or helicopter.

Certainly, fuel cells have come in for some stick for being so expensive. But the costs are calculated very differently when it comes to saving or even taking lives compared to an extended run time on your ipod.

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A slew of interesting letters in today's Times newspaper continuing a debate on biofuels, renewables and hydrogen.  Rob Thring, a Professor of Fuel Cell Engineering, argues that;

" if all the cars in Britain could be converted to run on fuel cells using hydrogen from electrolysers using electricity obtained only from wind turbines, we would need only 20,000 wind turbines to do that. Britain could do that in 20 years, and then we would not need petroleum imported from politically unstable areas to fuel our cars."

On one level, it's not quite right because 90% of the UK's imported petroleum comes from a fellow liberal democracy, Norway - and since the demise of the Vikings in the 10th Century AD, they haven't been an external cause of instability to anyone. Britain's energy security issues are largely to do with gas, being at the wrong end of the European pipeline, the run-down of North Sea reserves, an inbuilt self-defeating prejudice against new energy infrastructure  and a much-strained relationship with Russia.

Leaving that aside, it's a fascinating concept to envision wind turbines as a dedicated resource for the hydrogen production - i.e. via electrolysis - for transport fuel. It's not entirely crazy. The UK's island grid would have a hard time (impossible at the current time) load-balancing 20,000 x 3 MW turbines or 60,000 MW. No wonder more research is going on into wind forecasting as this piece in MIT Technology Review makes clear. Depending on who you believe, the furtherest wind could be integrated today in the UK is between 10 and 15% which would equate to about 16,000 to 20,000 MW of installed capacity, compared to about 2,500 MW now and that's assuming you can get it all through planning.

Hydrogen production however, which would be tied directly to storage, is not time sensitive and if, and it's a big if, all the UK's vehicles were to shift to hydrogen-fuelled fuel cells, there would be a ready market for it. This hydrogen ambition is a throwback to the scientist, J. B. S. Haldane's 1923 speech, in which he proposed the UK should replace it's exhausted coal fields with a network of hydrogen generating windmills - allegedly the first ever proposal for a hydrogen-based renewable energy economy.

For all that the killer fact remains; fuel cells for vehicles are still vastly too expensive for widespread adoption. Show me the showroom where I can go and buy one? Obviously, you can't. The economics of wind-powered hydrogen will start to make sense long before fuel cells do for everyday vehicles.

For more information on this debate, see this article I wrote a few years ago, which still holds up pretty well;

The Hydrogen Economy; what price and when?

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Unless you've been in space over the last couple of weeks, you will have heard a great deal of breathless reporting about Brazil's discovery of two massive oil fields - containing up to 41 billion barrels of recoverable crude. In fact one analyst, Peter Zeihan said;

"The finds they've got so far are just the tip of the iceberg . . . Brazil is going to change the balance of the global oil markets, and Petrobras will become a geopolitical supermajor.''

Heady stuff indeed !

No question, these are very large finds and it does blow a small hole in the arguments of the Peak Oilers - that all the large oil fields have been found. Still, even 41 billion barrels of oil - another 3% - is not that significant compared to proven global oil reserves of 1.3 trillion. And various forecasts of demand for oil rising from around 86m barrels per day today, to something like 120 - 130 m are going to require a great deal more oil field discoveries than this.

Now back to the title of this blog - would a really siginificant oil find undermine Brazil's ethanol industry?

Three points;

Time - it takes 10 years between geological discovery of crude until bringing that oil to market. Ethanol from sugar cane ought therefore to be fairly immune to its mineral competitor over the next decade.
Price - how cheaply can the oil be extracted? If it has only just been found, that would suggest to me that it requires some pretty pricey technology to get it out. Meanwhile, according to Goldman Sachs, ethanol from sugar cane is profitable with oil from $35 per barrel.
Volume - clearly, if Brazil were to discover even more recoverable oil, say 250 billion barrels, that would be a huge change that would call into question Brazil's ethanol production. If only because they will almost certainly be able to sell oil abroad at a higher price per barrel than they ever could with ethanol.

All in all, Brazil's drive for ethanol is at least partly motivated by the vision that this could be the first country in the history of the world to industrialize on the back of its farming industry. But that depends on exports and as and until America reduces its ethanol import tarif, that vision will still remain a dream.

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I've just finished going through this free report on China's renewable energy programme just released on Renewable Energy World, which is dated January 2008. Apart from the odd bit of Chinglish, it's very good. Here are what I consider to be the highlights;

  1. China will have to invest a staggering $263 billion by 2020 to meet its renewable energy targets. As there is a planned 170 GW of additional hydropower capacity which costs, conservatively, approx $1.2 billion per gigawatt then that leaves about $59 billion for solar, wind and biopower.
  2. Wind - In 2009 China will become the world’s largest producer of wind turbines. In  2009 and 2010, Chinese  wind turbine manufacturers---Jin Feng (Golden Wind) and Hua Rui---will start to export. So deflation  in the cost of  these machines is finally in sight. This is big news.

  3. Biofuels - China has approximately 212 m hectares of wasteland which could be cultivated for biofuel producing crops. Leaving aside the questionable benefits of biofuels, modern China likes to think big so don't think they won't try.

  4. Solar PV - China only has 15 MW of it. The solar emphasis continues to be solar thermal in China and the cheapest solar thermal unit costs just $150. When will they start exporting them?

All of this for me is leading to one point - the next big wave in alternative energy  (after biofuels, solar, etc. ) ought to be Chinese alternative energy companies. There's also the added bonus that Chinese stock markets were down as much as 50% until a few days ago and oil is now at $118 a barrel. Chinese alternative energy companies - i.e. the ones who are investing in China have a lot of work to do. Finally, don't discount the very good chance by the end of the year that China's currency - the Renminbi - will float and appreciate upwards. That will alleviate the buying power of China's rural poor currently faced with record food prices. Of course, such a course of action will be denied right up until after the event, but no Chinese government wants to face down a new peasant revolt.

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Another day, another record oil price - we're almost getting used to it. Yet according to Michael Lewis of Deutsche Bank, as reported in the excellent piece in the Economist makes clear, in real terms, the oil price will not hit a historical record unless . . .

  1. it exceeds $94 when rebased and inflated in line with America's producer-price index - done !
  2. it exceeds $118 when measured by the consumer price index - nearly there . . .
  3. it exceeds $134 according to the oil purchasing power of the average G7 consumer - 318 barrels equivalent in 1981
  4. it exceeds $145 when oil last ate up the biggest share of Americans' disposable income, 8% whilst it is only just under 7% now.
  5. it exceeds $150 a barrel when spending on oil as a share of global output peaked in 1980 at 5.9%, today it is 3.5%

You might also add to that whilst this continues to be a commodity priced in dollars (not a certainty), it may even have to go higher, because the international purchasing power of dollars ain't what it used to be. Anyway, the bottom line is that $150 oil really doesn't seem so extreme any more.

Alternative energy watchers have been quite fixated by the price of oil for some time, although there's no direct relationship that can be easily untangled between the two, it is for many the default benchmark for the arrival of alternative energy. And so this leads me to my next point, if oil prices are so high, why has the alternative energy IPO trail gone cold?

Here's a list of companies I've been keeping track of who seem to be holding out for better market conditions;

GT Solar
Real Goods
Oceanlinx
Falck Renewables
Everq
Eolia Renovables

The answer of course has to be the global credit crunch which has greatly unnerved markets. And we may not be clear of this until 2010.

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Well almost !

Clipper Windpower, the US-based wind technology developer and manufacturer, listed on London's AIM, has just closed a deal with Crown Estates to buy their 7.5 MW prototype offshore wind turbine. Crown Estates by the way, is a kind of British government body (supposedly, but not realistically the Queen's own property company - she has fairly tenuous ownership rights on property as she is not free to sell, let alone bank the profit). The reason for Crown Estates to venture into this market is because they own most of the seabed surrounding the United Kingdom - prime real estate in other words for the explosion in offshore wind that the government is trying to encourage. Although I don't believe it will happen at anything like the scale they want it to - see my earlier post, Don't hold your breath for offshore wind.

What is exciting though is the size of this turbine, at 7.5 MW, it is massive, three times larger than their Liberty machine. Offshore turbines, as I have argued before, are just not big enough to profitably pay for themselves, that is to say the additional costs of installation at sea with highly specialist equipment, grid connection through underwater sea cables, extra casing to prevent corrosion of internal machinery, etc. etc. usually mean that offshore costs up to twice as much as onshore.

So the only way to overcome this is with much, much bigger turbines because that reduces your maintenance per megawatt cost over a machine's lifetime. And at 7.5 MW, a turbine working at a 30% load factor, just might though go some way to closing that financial performance gap with onshore wind . . .

Not all the news has been so positive of late about Clipper. Making a loss before tax of $191.8m in 2007 from $19.9m in 2006 in the best ever year for the Wind Industry is not a great sign. About half of that loss stemmed from  turbine remediation costs, loss making contracts, warranties, inventory obsolescence and liquidated damages on late turbine deliveries.

And yet I do admire Clipper for being something of a maverick, can-do firm, which is quite different in its outlook to some of the relatively staid European players. Here's why;

i) First of all, How many other wind turbine manufacturers would have thought of approaching Crown Estates to sell them a prototype turbine?
ii) The Chairman, Jim Dehlsen, has been an entrepreneur in the business since 1980, i.e. the very beginning when he founded Zond.
iii) Clipper thinks it can cover both ends of the wind market - as a windfarm developer and a turbine manufacturer - which is courageous - they may yet be right
iv) The company eschewed the North American Stock Exchanges and went straight to London's AIM for cheaper capital, deeper analyst coverage and less onerous regulatory requirements - an early mover in that trend
v) They have managed to raise a lot of funds outside of the market - from BP and most recently, JP Morgan.

So, let's see how it pans out for Clipper over the next couple of years . . .

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To an outsider, Taiwan's stocks have always appeared to be some way off the radar screen. That's a shame because the economic fortunes of this developed country (a nation in all but name) which grew at 5.7% last year and is forecast to grow by an albeit questionably precise 4.67% in 2008 has to be the right side of the future.

And so to Taiwan's E-ton Solar Tech (Taiwanese Stock Exchange not yet on ADVFN). They have just agreed a new polysilicon contract with M.Setek, effective April 2008 to December 2009. Allegedly, this deal will see its overall material costs slashed by 40-45% in the second quarter of 2008 from a supply of more than 1000 tons of polysilicon at 30% less than spot market quotes.

That has to be good going, not least because there must be that much more competition for polysilicon in an island famed for its semiconductor industry.

And now for the topical take. London right now is in the middle of an election for a new Mayor - or not - and E-ton  can point to a prestige development of its solar cells, London's City Hall at the insistence of current Mayor, Ken Livingstone.  I go  past this building every day and I have to say, it took them ages to put it up.  But it is  a  big  chunk of solar power.

london.jpgThe 67 kilowatts of pv  were encapsulated intod modules by Romag Holdings and installed on the roof of the London Assembly/ City Hall -where the Mayor of London presides. More detail here.

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A very good piece here by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who explores some of the controversies around biofuels and food production, and then, more relevantly to us, cites Goldman Sachs as having come up with these figures for each kind of biofuel, for a barrel of oil equivalent. As he said;

Goldman Sachs says the cost of ethanol from corn is $81 a barrel (oil equivalent), with wheat at $145 and soybeans $232. It is built on subsidy. New technology may open the way for the use of non-edible grain stalks to make ethanol, but for now the only biofuel crop that genuinely pays its way is sugar cane ($35).

These are valuable new figures because earlier ones have become distorted by the decline of the dollar, and the rise in commodity prices, particularly inputs like feedstocks for biofuels. But the overall picture is very clear. With oil at over $100 a barrel, Brazilian ethanol producers - which is based on sugarcane - should be well in the money for some time to come. The American Mid West corn ethanol boom meanwhile looks to be on shaky ground (as if most of you didn't already know) without high tensions in the Middle East. The EU wheat story is what you might expect of European farmers seeking subsidies and whoever is producing soybeans for biofuels, that appears to be utterly indefensible.

Where I disagree with Ambrose is that he is mistaken to echo the idea that biofuels need replace rainforest in Brazil. The reality is that there is a great deal of land in Brazil that is not rainforest, which could go a long way to meeting the world's demand for biofuels at an affordable price and at a very low environmental cost. To be precise, currently, Brazil only devotes 5.3m hectares of land to sugarcane production but could easily expand into 320m hectares of genuinely arable land - i.e. not rainforest. 

Far, far better the world grows its biofuel in Brazil, than in the MidWest, Europe or Malaysia.

With that in mind, here are some Brazilian ethanol companies (and listed stocks) you may be interested in;

Acucar Guarani

Brasil Ecodiesel

Clean Energy Brazil

Cosan SA

Sao Martinho

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By and large, the perfect combination of circumstances for the optimal deployment of solar photovoltaics are;

1) a high number of daily sunlight hours (i.e. cloudless) throughout an average year (Middle East, most of the Mediterranean, Africa, Far East, some parts of North and Central America etc. - not North West Europe)
2) a high degree of solar radiation as measured by watts per square metre (ditto)
3) a pretty wealthy pool of potential consumers with green and / or energy security concerns close to heart (like Germany and Israel - typically an average of $25,000 per head GDP and up)
4) a generous subsidy in one form or another (Germany über alles!)
5) an unreliable national grid (Iraq, Italy, California)
6) expensive retail consumer prices for conventional or nuclear power which quickly prices in solar (Japan, California)
7) a lack of domestic competitive alternatives - conventional or nuclear or large hydro (increasingly, Italy)

Of course, there has been no perfectly rational distribution of solar power to date. But news that Spain's Solaria Energia is eyeing up expansion into fellow Mediterranean nations, Greece and Italy merits some strategic analysis. As the article in Forbes say;

Solaria has targeted those two markets because of its demand boom for solar machinery and favourable solar electricity production legislation.

If one accepts that solar prices are going to fall at least a couple of dollars per installed watt over the next decade then there will indeed be a real boom. I suspect though it won't be where it has been happening to date, Germany and California. Italy, has to be a candidate, because it will probably not get its act together and build a few more desperately needed power stations and continue to rely even more on imported power. Greece, meanwhile is booming and can't quite keep up with demand. They nonetheless are already long-time converts to flat-plate solar thermal collectors. Strategically, I'd say it makes good sense for Solaria to look at these two countries and I daresay the rest of the solar industry will do so too over the next decade.

My final point is that it is Interesting that they intend to bypass France en route to Italy and Greece. Solar PV is practically non-existant in France, in spite of some ideal climate in the South-West of the country.

That's because, as one must never forget, legislation and the subsidies that go with it, still trumps everything else in the solar business, every time.

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A few days ago, the American Wind Energy Association released its annual rankings - download pdf here. Many of the subsequent headlines were geared to how impressively Texas has ramped up wind capacity, nearly 2 GW in 20007 or what it took the whole of the UK to do in 20 years. 

Yet for me, the real story is how pervasive and dominant non-US companies are in the United States Wind Sector at the manufacturing and windfarm ownership level.

Take the Top 5 "Managing Owners" of wind power projects in the USA - 3 of them, Iberdrola, Horizon (owned by Energias de Portugal) and Babcock & Brown are originally from outside of the States.

Of the Top 5 wind turbines manufacturers, GE Energy is out on top, but followed by Vestas, Siemens, Gamesa and Mitsubishi. It's also curious how the best-selling turbine in the USA last year was the GE 1.5 MW model. I don't know if that can last. The European manufacturers have more expertise in making wind turbines bigger and in the long run, as far as windpower is concerned, size does matter.

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There's precious little information - in English - on Chinese stocks. But there is a massive hydropower programme going on there, a staggering 170 Gigawatts of hydropower is to be added by 2020. I've been looking at Chinese stocks and have come up with these 3 so far which should have some exposure to that;

Chongqing Three Gorges
Guizhou Qianyuan Power
Sichuan Mianjiang Hydropower