An interesting piece in MIT Technology Review today about improving solar efficiency from multicrystalline silicon. Although my eyes almost started to glaze over when I read;

". . . if the technology successfully scales up, Sachs says, it could significantly bring down the cost of solar electricity. Sachs says that today, solar cells cost about $2.10 per watt generated. When manufactured at a commercial scale, the first cells incorporating his new technology will cost $1.65 per watt. Planned improvements will bring down this cost to about $1.30 a watt, he says. To compete with coal, the cost will need to come down to about $1 a watt, something that Sachs predicts can be achieved by 2012 with further improvements in antireflection coatings and other anticipated advances."

Almost never, ever, take anyone at face value who says if I can get a big enough production run, my costs will fall dramatically. What do you think everyone else is doing in the solar industry, cutting production?

There have been no end of false dawns that didn't happen for all sorts of technologies based on this misleading premise that increased production always equals falling output costs. What tends to happen when costs actually do fall is that a major game-changing shift in technology coupled with excess supply tends to make reduced prices possible. Not a massive cash injection which ramps up production of the same technology in the same manufacturing production way as pretty much everyone else.

But I digress. What really caught my attention was the focus of this solar technology's ability to achieve more electron displacement through ridged panels that force photons to bounce several times on the electrode before escaping. This is not in itself startling new - there are several players out there trying to do it. I suggest reading this more concise one-pager on the effectiveness of v-shaped solar cells. The ultimate prize in solar efficiency is trapping photons to extend their extremely short lifetimes, significantly. Last year, French physicists actually did this - building a photon trap that extended the lifespan of a  photon to a seventh of a second.

An interesting piece in MIT Technology Review today about improving solar efficiency from multicrystalline silicon. Although my eyes almost started to glaze over when I read;

". . . if the technology successfully scales up, Sachs says, it could significantly bring down the cost of solar electricity. Sachs says that today, solar cells cost about $2.10 per watt generated. When manufactured at a commercial scale, the first cells incorporating his new technology will cost $1.65 per watt. Planned improvements will bring down this cost to about $1.30 a watt, he says. To compete with coal, the cost will need to come down to about $1 a watt, something that Sachs predicts can be achieved by 2012 with further improvements in antireflection coatings and other anticipated advances."

Almost never, ever, take anyone at face value who says if I can get a big enough production run, my costs will fall dramatically. What do you think everyone else is doing in the solar industry, cutting production?

There have been no end of false dawns that didn't happen for all sorts of technologies based on this misleading premise that increased production always equals falling output costs. What tends to happen when costs actually do fall is that a major game-changing shift in technology coupled with excess supply tends to make reduced prices possible. Not a massive cash injection which ramps up production of the same technology in the same manufacturing production way as pretty much everyone else.

But I digress. What really caught my attention was the focus of this solar technology's ability to achieve more electron displacement through ridged panels that force photons to bounce several times on the electrode before escaping. This is not in itself startling new - there are several players out there trying to do it. I suggest reading this more concise one-pager on the effectiveness of v-shaped solar cells. The ultimate prize in solar efficiency is trapping photons to extend their extremely short lifetimes, significantly. Last year, French physicists actually did this - building a photon trap that extended the lifespan of a  photon to a seventh of a second.

THE GAINERS

Itm Power LSE:ITM FuelCells 23.94
Gtl Resources LSE:GTL Bioethanol 17.71
Zenn Motor Company Inc. (Tier2) TSX:ZNN ElectricVehicles 17.42
Solco Ltd Fpo ASX:SOO Solar 12.90
Electro Energy Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:EEEI EnergyStorage 11.63
Plug Power (MM) NASDAQ:PLUG FuelCells 9.54
Centrotherm Photovolt. XE:CTN Solar 8.71
Greentech Energy Systems OMX:GES Wind 8.44

A good thought-provoking piece here got me thinking - Spring brings sunnier view for solar stocks - how big does a correction have to be for investors to start buying up a particular sector again?

One approach has to recall the wisdom of the original value investor, Benjamin Graham - see wiki, which I have borrowed heavily from below, whose philosophy emphasised investment over speculation.

Graham argued that;

• a stock owner should not be too concerned with erratic fluctuations in stock prices, since in the short term, the market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine (i.e. its true value will in the long run be reflected in its stock price).
• Passive or defensive investors, invest cautiously, look for value stocks, and buys for the long term.
• Active investors, on the other hand, is one who has more time, interest, and possibly more specialized knowledge to seek out exceptional buys in the market.

I don't give buy or sell advice on AEI, but it does seem to me there is much reason in Graham's approach. And I would guess that if he were to look at the solar sector today, he would continue to advocate a long-term investment horizon. The daily swings in alternative energy stocks are pretty exceptional and you can be either a brilliant speculator or more likely, just lose your shirt. None of the growth that has been happening in the solar industry is going away in the forseeable future, which I would call the next 5 years at least.

But valuations are all relative, first of all to other sectors and secondly to the rate of continued growth for each company . . .

A week ago, the FTSE 100 had a PE ratio of 11 and right now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 12.6. If you don't factor in the above averarge growth of the solar industry, then of course solar stocks look pricey. SunPower shares are at about 33 times 2008 earnings, First Solar at 85, Suntech at 22 and at the time of posting, Trina Solar at 20.9. Anyway take a look through our list of solar stocks and make up your own mind - PE Ratios are shown for all North American and UK listed stocks.

THE GAINERS

Spire (MM) NASDAQ:SPIR Solar 25.64
Renesola LSE:SOLA Solar 18.83
Ascent Solar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:ASTI Solar 17.14
Solarfun Power Holdings CO., Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:SOLF Solar 16.58
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 15.48
Carnegie Fpo ASX:CNM Wave 15.38
Q-Cells Ag XE:QCE Solar 14.74
Morphic Technologies AB Ser. B OMX:MORP-B FuelCells 13.47
Schmack Biogas NA O.N. XE:SB1 Biogas 10.98

THE GAINERS

Ascent Solar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:ASTI Solar 12.41
Nova Biosource Fuels, AMEX:NBF Biodiesel 9.42
Sunopta (MM) NASDAQ:STKL Bioethanol 7.95
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 7.91
CH. Rokas S.A. (PR) ASE:ROKPA Wind 7.52
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 7.50
Ldk Solar CO Adr NYSE:LDK Solar 7.20

THE GAINERS

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 29.75
Ascent Solar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:ASTI Solar 21.60
Solarfun Power Holdings CO., Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:SOLF Solar 20.82
Canadian Solar Inc. - Common Shares (MM) NASDAQ:CSIQ Solar 20.50
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 19.44
China Sun SGX:C86 Bioethanol 12.00
Suntech Power Hldgs NYSE:STP Solar 11.03

THE GAINERS

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 29.75
Ascent Solar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:ASTI Solar 21.60
Solarfun Power Holdings CO., Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:SOLF Solar 20.82
Canadian Solar Inc. - Common Shares (MM) NASDAQ:CSIQ Solar 20.50
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 19.44
China Sun SGX:C86 Bioethanol 12.00
Suntech Power Hldgs NYSE:STP Solar 11.03

THE GAINERS

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 29.75
Ascent Solar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:ASTI Solar 21.60
Solarfun Power Holdings CO., Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:SOLF Solar 20.82
Canadian Solar Inc. - Common Shares (MM) NASDAQ:CSIQ Solar 20.50
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 19.44
China Sun SGX:C86 Bioethanol 12.00
Suntech Power Hldgs NYSE:STP Solar 11.03

THE GAINERS

Millennium Cell Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:MCEL FuelCells 58.75
Spire (MM) NASDAQ:SPIR Solar 13.87
US Bioenergy (MM) NASDAQ:USBE Bioethanol 12.76
Suntech Power Hldgs NYSE:STP Solar 12.40
Biofuel Energy (MM) NASDAQ:BIOF Bioethanol 11.78
Sunpower (MM) NASDAQ:SPWR Solar 11.34
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 10.97
Verasun Energy Corp NYSE:VSE Bioethanol 10.41
Pacific Ethanol - Commonstock (MM) NASDAQ:PEIX Bioethanol 9.29
Solarfun Power Holdings CO., Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:SOLF Solar 9.29

Hoku Scientific, originally a fuel cell developer based in Hawaii, since morphed into a solar photovoltaic manufacturer and distributor has just signed a deal to bring 350 kw of pv power to Paradise Beverages - a distributor for Heineken, Coors and Miller Beer in Hawaii at is Oahu facility. The less serious part of me wonders if part of the deal was free beer for the annual Christmas party . . . I digress.

The important point is that the Drinks Industry is an extremely energy-intensive one, operating more often than not, in low value real estate, with large redundant flat rooves, ideal for solar panels. It is also a sector that has been pursued with no small amount of success by Solar Integrated Technologies or SIT. They managed to snare Coca-Cola as a client in California. Both Hawaii and California have the sunny climate and the relatively high electricity prices that work to price in solar as a commercial solution. Buying solar power for industries in both these states is a more calculable risk, as it is a forward purchase of electricity at a fixed price, 20 years into the future against an uncertain and regulatory-induced limited supply of grid-tied electricity.

But between beer and soda, in the long-run, if I was a sales manager for a solar company, I would bet on alcohol consumption growing a lot faster and those companies power consumption with it, every time. Rightly or wrongly, the world is starting to recoil from the health impact of too many sugary, unnatural drinks. I'm not convinced that too many of the globe's newly rich seek to emulate Warren Buffet's admiration for Cherry Coke. Whereas the aspiration (Champagne at the top and beer at the bottom) and sense of occasion that come with alcoholic beverages - in spite of arguably greater health risks - are too manifest to ignore. So their next point of call might be for the solar industry to pursue drinks manufacturers in the fastest growing economies with major power shortages where their intellectual property can be reasonably protected - I'm thinking of India, Vietnam and just maybe, Turkey.

THE GAINERS

Chofu Seisakusho Co JSX:5946 Solar 0.49

THE NON-MOVERS

Archer Daniels Mdlnd NYSE:ADM Biodiesel 0.00
Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 0.00
Bdi-Biodiesel Int. XE:D7I Biodiesel 0.00
Biofutures LSE:BIP Biodiesel 0.00
ECODIESEL ON NM BOV:ECOD3 Biodiesel 0.00

THE GAINERS

D1 Oils LSE:DOO Biodiesel 23.87
Schmack Biogas NA O.N. XE:SB1 Biogas 22.97
Plug Power (MM) NASDAQ:PLUG FuelCells 18.51
Nova Biosource Fuels, AMEX:NBF Biodiesel 15.97
Verasun Energy Corp NYSE:VSE Bioethanol 15.51
US Bioenergy (MM) NASDAQ:USBE Bioethanol 13.88
Altair Nanotechnologies Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:ALTI EnergyStorage 12.17

THE GAINERS

Verbio Ver.Bioenergie On XE:VBK Biodiesel 17.61
Petratherm Fpo ASX:PTR Geothermal 16.67
Schmack Biogas NA O.N. XE:SB1 Biogas 13.75
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 8.89
Beacon Power (MM) NASDAQ:BCON EnergyStorage 7.14
Renewable Energy NK 1 XE:R3Q Solar 6.17
D1 Oils LSE:DOO Biodiesel 6.16

The findings of a very interesting study have just been released that works on the assumption that by 2025, one quarter of US cars will be plug in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). Assuming continued growth in population and vehicle ownership in America, that amounts to at least 60 million vehicles, up from - I would guesstimate - a few dozen today.

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Study was principally concerned with what the impact would be on electricity demand. As per their press release;

"In an analysis of the potential impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles projected for 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions of the United States, ORNL researchers explored their potential effect on electricity demand, supply, infrastructure, prices and associated emission levels. Electricity requirements for hybrids used a projection of 25 percent market penetration of hybrid vehicles by 2020 including a mixture of sedans and sport utility vehicles. Several scenarios were run for each region for the years 2020 and 2030 and the times of 5 p.m. or 10:00 p.m., in addition to other variables.

The report found that the need for added generation would be most critical by 2030, when hybrids have been on the market for some time and become a larger percentage of the automobiles Americans drive. In the worst-case scenario—if all hybrid owners charged their vehicles at 5 p.m., at six kilowatts of power—up to 160 large power plants would be needed nationwide to supply the extra electricity, and the demand would reduce the reserve power margins for a particular region's system.

The best-case scenario occurs when vehicles are plugged in after 10 p.m., when the electric load on the system is at a minimum and the wholesale price for energy is least expensive. Depending on the power demand per household, charging vehicles after 10 p.m. would require, at lower demand levels, no additional power generation or, in higher-demand projections, just eight additional power plants nationwide."

So timing is everything. Even in a country like the UK, which powers most of its electricity by coal and gas, charging up overnight makes sense because when demand drops from a peak of 60 GW during the day to 20 GW at night, only the nuclear, hydro and wind power stations are still generating electricity. And because no one uses it much then, it's cheap, virtually half-price. The study also from what I gather, does not factor in the arrival of pure electric vehicles which would also want some of that demand.

Now, back to the bigger story. For PHEVs, from several dozen to 60 million in the US alone - this is a phenomenal growth curve - how could an investor get exposure to it?

Hybrid Battery Technology stocks;

Altairnano

Applied Intellectual Capital

Electro Energy

Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide

There's also Ener1 - see here, which I don't list because it is a OTCBB stock.

and for the pure electric vehicle play . . .

Tanfield Group - UK based

Zenn Motor Company - Canada based but doing business in the States

So there aren't that many stocks and they're all pretty small. One should also be cautious as similar projections were made for fuel cell cars which everyone would now agree were ridiculous. I have more confidence though that plug in hybrids will succeed because they already work at a reasonable cost. Definitely a sector to swat up on.

THE GAINERS

Pacific Ethanol - Commonstock (MM) NASDAQ:PEIX Bioethanol 15.38
CO2 Grp. Fpo ASX:COZ CarbonTradingandFinancial 11.69
Sunpower (MM) NASDAQ:SPWR Solar 10.99
Solar Millennium Ag XE:S2M Solar 10.09
Dynetek Industries Com Npv TSE:DNK EnergyStorage 9.21
Wacker Chemie O.N. XE:WCH Solar 9.10
Valmont Inds NYSE:VMI Wind 8.88

THE GAINERS

Satcon Technology (MM) NASDAQ:SATC DiversifiedAltE 6.06
Geodynamic Fpo ASX:GDY Geothermal 6.02
CO2 Grp. Fpo ASX:COZ CarbonTradingandFinancial 5.48
Novera LSE:NVE DiversifiedAltE 5.39
Wind Hydgn Fpo ASX:WHN DiversifiedAltE 4.44
Canadian Hydro Dev Com Npv TSE:KHD DiversifiedAltE 3.48
Idacorp Hldg NYSE:IDA Hydro 2.26

Valmont Industries , a company who manufacture steel towers for wind turbines, has just been upgraded to a buy. Along with gearboxes made by Hansen Transmissions, towers are in the profitable sweetspot - because of the limited choice of components suppliers in the wind industry. I still think though there must be much more progress that could be made in wind turbines. We really need some game-changing innovation. One particularly radical idea may even break Betz's Law that only up to 59% of the wind's kinetic energy can be harnessed by a wind turbine.

The researchers at Whalepower have been inspired by - of all things - the flippers of humpback whales.

It turns out that these bumps on the flippers - or tubercles - when placed on a wind turbine actually reduce noise, increase its stability, and enable it to capture more energy from the wind, as much as double at lower wind speeds.

Here's a picture taken from an excellent piece in MIT Technology Review - well worth a read, to give you some idea of what it looks like. A few more innovations like this that come to market and we may yet see an even bigger market for wind - at a subsidy free price.

THE GAINERS

ECODIESEL ON NM BOV:ECOD3 Biodiesel 18.93
Run of River Power Inc. (Tier1) TSX:ROR DiversifiedAltE 14.29
Carmanah Techs Cor Com Npv TSE:CMH Solar 14.12
Renesola LSE:SOLA Solar 11.05
Green Rock Fpo ASX:GRK Geothermal 10.23
Wind Hydgn Fpo ASX:WHN DiversifiedAltE 8.43

THE GAINERS

Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 29.41
Ldk Solar CO Adr NYSE:LDK Solar 23.74
Trina Solar Ltd Adr NYSE:TSL Solar 13.96
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 12.12
Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 12.00
Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 8.82
Solarfun Power Holdings CO., Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:SOLF Solar 8.48

I don't think anyone saw this coming. Because of tax and regulatory incentives, it has always been difficult to find a totally straightforward relationship between the price of oil and alternative energy stocks. Yet no one ever really disputed that, say, if oil prices had remained low - at $10 a barrel as they were in 1999 - there's no way we could have had the boom in alternative energy investment of recent years.

However, over the last few weeks, they have clearly been heading in the opposite direction. Oil is reaching new highs - $111 and the Wilder Hill Clean Energy Index which closed at 206.77 yesterday, is a long way off it's 2007 Boxing Day high of 297.05.

Obviously, there are a lot of investors out there who haven't read the script !

What's happening is that commodities like oil and gold, in the face of the credit crunch, have become the new defensive investments. That strikes me as pretty risky, but it seems to be working for those investors, for now.

And still there is no let up in sight to the alternative energy boom. Figures out earlier this week from Clean Edge make this clear - in 2007, a 40% increase in revenue growth for solar photovoltaics, wind, biofuels, and fuel cells to $77.3 billion. And the projections for 2017 are;

• Biofuels sales will grow to $81.1 billion by 2017 - a 319% increase
  


• Wind power (new installation capital costs) will grow to $83.4 billion in 2017 - a 277% increase
  


• Solar photovoltaics (including modules, system components, and installation) will grow to $74 billion by 2017 - a 365% increase
  


• The fuel cell and distributed hydrogen market will grow to $16 billion over the next decade - a 1066% increase
  

All projections far into the future have a habit of being wrong of course, but Clean Edge has the only annual and projected figures in town. And let's be honest, most of us would be very happy with half these growth rates. It's also worth noting that in the last few years, alt. e. growth rates have actually been faster than anticipated. If there's anything I'm overtly sceptical about in these projections, it would have to be the fuel cell industry which has been the future for a long time. I still don't see a big breakthrough in sight.

It would be interesting to start seeing some figures though on the growth in energy storage technologies, particularly those in the category of hybrid electric vehicles.

THE GAINERS

Jackgreen Fpo ASX:JGL DiversifiedAltE 17.33
Climate Exch. LSE:CLE CarbonTradingandFinancial 16.21
Pacific Ethanol - Commonstock (MM) NASDAQ:PEIX Bioethanol 13.70
Green Rock Fpo ASX:GRK Geothermal 12.82
Suzlon Energy Limited NSE:SUZLON Wind 12.43
Dyesol Ltd Fpo ASX:DYE Solar 11.11
Spire (MM) NASDAQ:SPIR Solar 10.07
D1 Oils LSE:DOO Biodiesel 9.59

I have just been thumbing through the ultimate global resource on hydropower - The World Atlas 2007 of the International Journal of Hydropower & Dams. It's worth reflecting on just how big the hydropower industry is and how fast it is quietly growing.

• Worldwide, total hydro capacity is 807 GW, 50 GW up on on 2006
• Annual 2007 hydroelectricity production stood at 3030 TWh
• At least 150 GW of hydro is under construction in 106 countries of the world
• In Africa, hydropower production increased by about 9 per cent in 2007 to 93,000 GWh
• In Asia, 126 GW is under construction - well over 80% of the global total
• We've all heard of the 3 Gorges Dam in China, but Vietnam has an ambitious programme - from 4,500 MW today to 16,580 MW by 2020
• Europe has more than 3,364 MW under construction - the largest of which is in Iceland at 690 MW to power an aluminium smelter

And yet, I only have a handful of hydropower stocks. There must be many more - please comment below or shoot me an email for any you think I should know about, particularly in the developing world.  I know there are environmental issues with  hydropower, but fully amortized hydro it is the cheapest form of electricity bar none and it is highly scaleable compared to any other existing renewable resource. No wonder the world's energy poor are taking such a shine to it.

THE GAINERS

JA Solar Holdings, CO., Ltd. - Ads (MM) NASDAQ:JASO Solar 17.68
First Solar (MM) NASDAQ:FSLR Solar 12.20
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 11.37
Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 10.89
Emcore (MM) NASDAQ:EMKR Solar 9.67
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 9.52
Mgp Ingredients (MM) NASDAQ:MGPI Bioethanol 9.02

THE GAINERS

Polyfuel Regs LSE:PYF FuelCells 48.48
Hydrogenics Corp Com Npv TSE:HYG FuelCells 8.77
Biopetrol Inds Inh.SF 1 XE:B2I Biodiesel 7.92
Edenenergy Fpo ASX:EDE DiversifiedAltE 4.62
Cvc Ltd Fpo ASX:CVC DiversifiedAltE 4.55
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 4.23

I've been watching the D1 Oils story unfold over the last week. To sum up, the company is suffering from;

i) Negative sentiment in general concerning the marginal effect of biofuels to reduce carbon and the negative environmental consequences of growing crops for fuel at the expense of say, virgin tropical rainforest. Clearly, it's not fair for D1 to be bracketed with other biofuels, because unlike other biofuel producers, D1 Oils' crop is jatropha and can grow just about anywhere, even wasteland at very low environmental cost.

ii) As I just mentioned in my newsletter (have you signed up yet? You should, it's free !) D1 is struggling to compete with US importers of Biodiesel who have been able to exploit a double subsidy through a regulatory loophole. This loophole will be closed by the beginning of next year under the terms of the new US Energy Act - so theoretically, isn't there light at the end of the tunnel?

iii) A highly adverse reaction to plans to cut the workforce by 30% announced last week.

iv) Yesterday's resignation by Karl Watkin - followed by his stormy remarks attacking the City - that's what I call ill-advised - where's the upside of laying into a community who may be helpful to you in the future and have already helped you until now?

And so, just moments ago, I gather from Reuters, that Karl Watkin may be preparing a buyout bid. to take advantage of a record-low share price and a global commodity boom.

Definitely a stock to watch - let's see what happens . . .

THE GAINERS

Petratherm Fpo ASX:PTR Geothermal 11.27
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 11.11
Polyfuel Regs LSE:PYF FuelCells 8.20
Ecosec LSE:ECO CarbonTradingandFinancial 8.00
Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 4.17
Bdi-Biodiesel Int. XE:D7I Biodiesel 4.15

Ok, let's face it, no one in alternative energy is doing anything quite as well as Moore's Law. Let's just remind ourselves what it is ...

The observation made in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future. In subsequent years, the pace slowed down a bit, but data density has doubled approximately every 18 months, and this is the current definition of Moore's Law, which Moore himself has blessed. Most experts, including Moore himself, expect Moore's Law to hold for at least another two decades.

From Webpedia.

Ray Kurzweil of course, would go much further. Roughly each year, computers chips will not only double their power, but the bandwidth of networks will triple and most importantly, the number of computational calculations per $1,000 will double too.

Now back to the starting theme of this post. An excellent article in the Economist this week In search of the perfect battery got me thinking, after looking at the chart entitled Super store. Solar PV efficiency is increasing by around 1 percent per annum. Today, your average new solar panel can crank out 15% efficiency, so by 2015, we could be up to 22%. According to the chart however, the projected rate of increase for power density in lithium ion batteries will jump from about 180 watt hours per kg to 320 - a nearly 80% increase. 

The other bit that caught my eye. According to Menahem Anderman, "between now and 2015 . . . the worldwide market for hybrid-vehicle batteries will more than triple, to $2.3 billion" and half of hybrid cars in 2009 will be using lithium ion batteries. Granted, that's a much slower growth rate than solar (approx 17% p.a.), which  will probably grow by at least 30% a year until 2015, yielding a 6 fold increase in production.  But the sheer size of the Global automotive industry, with probably close to, I guesstimate, $800 billion in annual sales, just might point to a growth curve for automotive lithium ion batteries on a par with solar, at the back end of the next decade. Especially, if Peak Oil finally kicks in by then.