The latest Economist magazine seems to think so - as it says;

"The multi-billion dollar question is whether the skills that make somebody a successful  executive, entrepreneur or investor in digital technology also work with green technology"

I agree that there's perhaps too much focus on the numbers and the underlying technologies. What's all too often underrated, is how good or bad is the management. That's why I launched the AEI CEO Interview series, to add a qualitative, vital intangible angle to any given company and an insight into the people behind the firms and how they see their industry panning out.

Now back to the geeks, who are more often than not, the investors rather than the entrepreneurs in this scenario. And what's interesting is that they tend to be more involved in the riskier venture capital part of the alternative energy marketplace - people like Vinod Kholsa - rather than where AEI steps in, the public markets. The exception of course is Bill Gates and Pacific Ethanol - a far from successful investment .

THE GAINERS

Ceramic Fuel LSE:CFU FuelCells 38.82
O2Diesel Corp. AMEX:OTD Biodiesel 18.52
ECODIESEL ON NM BOV:ECOD3 Biodiesel 18.18
Wind Hydgn Fpo ASX:WHN DiversifiedAltE 10.00
Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 8.33
Itm Power LSE:ITM FuelCells 8.27

THE GAINERS

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 18.18
Millennium Cell Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:MCEL FuelCells 16.84
Geo Res Fpo ASX:GHT Geothermal 15.38
Vrb Power Systems Inc. (Tier1) TSX:VRB EnergyStorage 10.53
Ceramic Fuel LSE:CFU FuelCells 10.39
Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 10.00

THE GAINERS

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 20.73
Climate Exch. LSE:CLE CarbonTradingandFinancial 17.76
Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 17.65
Biofutures LSE:BIP Biodiesel 13.79
Austrefuel Fpo ASX:ARW Biodiesel 11.11
Morphic Technologies AB Ser. B OMX:MORP-B FuelCells 10.73

Today I'm launching the AEI www.altenergyinvestor.org CEO interview series and I'm delighted to kick it off with Stephen Voller, CEO and Founder of Voller Energy Plc.



Dan Lewis: Stephen,  how did your career develop to becoming Founder and Chief Executive of Voller Energy?

 

Stephen Voller: I worked in the IT business for IBM and then Netscape. As I travelled around the world with my laptop I wondered why a product that got ever more sophisticated never seemed to have enough battery life. I came up with the idea of using a light, renewable fuel cell to charge the batteries.

DL: What is your vision for Voller Energy?

SV: Our vision is to become the leading developer, manufacturer and supplier of fuel cell technology to the mass market.  We are already one of the first companies in the world who have deliverable technology, and portable fuel cells are widely predicted to be the first type of fuel cell to reach a mass market.  Voller is now well placed as an early leader in this sector.

In the future we will use energy differently. Instead of using a national grid to power our homes, I believe that we will generate our own power and use the grid as back-up. We will sell power back to the grid for others to use, or store the energy in batteries to power our cars. Voller is positioning itself for this new world.  I believe that our children and our children’s children will look back on our generation as the one that was decadent with energy and squandered it all. They will also label us the ‘dirty generation’ because of the effect we have had on the planet.

We simply cannot go on using the fossil fuels at the current rate and we cannot go on producing the very high level of emissions that we do.  More and more people are now realising that the technology to address this problem exists in fuel cells. Because fuel cells are much more fuel efficient we can make our natural resources go further, and the emissions from them are much lower.  So we can keep the lights on, but reduce the effects of climate change.

DL: What do you think your latest financial results say about the company?

SV: The results reflect that fact that we are still in the early adopting phase of this technology roll out. All new technologies go through the early adopter, growth, maturity and decline cycles. For example PC’s are now mature technology and it was the internet that pushed them through their growth phase.

We can address niche or specialist markets today such as high end leisure applications for yachts and motor-caravans, and the desperate need for low-emission generators in the construction sector. Our low noise, low vibration products are ideal for these markets.

As our production volumes grow we will benefit from the economies of scale and the prices will fall and sales will increase as we begin the growth phase.

DL: Who are your competitors and why do you think you are better than they are?

SV: We provide solutions for our customers using the best of breed systems that are available. The majority of players in the fuel cell industry see us as a customer rather than competitor. Our ‘competition’ is really conventional generators rather than other fuel cell companies.  We have renewable technology and are we are already manufacturing fuel cells to order.

DL: Why do you think the fuel cell industry has generally failed to fulfill the high expectations of the late 90s?

SV: In the 1990s people’s expectations were unrealistic in terms of deliverable products to the mass market.  This is a relatively new industry and, although most fuel cell companies have technology, Voller is one of the few that has actually delivered solutions based on this technology to real customers.

DL: How do you see the fuel cell industry developing over the next 2, 10 and 20 years?

SV: The Stern review highlighted the need for a collaboration of technology instead of searching for one sliver bullet. It is likely that a combination of technologies will allow us to address our future power needs.  It will take time.  In two years hopefully the market will have recovered and people will be more willing to back technologies that address climate change issues.  I would say that that sense of urgency will increase over the next 10 years so that in 20 year time fuel cells will be an integral park of everyday life.

DL: Tell us about your existing products and how you see their market developing in the years to come?

SV: Voller has a 1kW PEM fuel cell system called Emerald that runs from LPG or propane. The system uses the Ballard 1030 PEM fuel cell stack and a steam reforming system. The system provides up to 1kW DC power continuously and up to 5kW AC power via a battery bank and inverter. The Emerald system continuously monitors the user’s batteries and automatically recharges as needed.

In operation, Emerald is quiet and vibration free, has virtually no noxious emissions, requires no liquid lubricants and will require much less maintenance than diesel powered generators. In addition, the Emerald system is highly efficient and will produce up to 2kW of useable heat. Emerald delivers electrical efficiencies of 20-25% when running at full power with overall efficiencies of up to 60% in CHP mode. Conventional generators deliver effective efficiencies of 10% or even much less if poorly managed.

DL: Tell us about the Voller Fuel cell concept yacht.

SV: Fuel cells are a very attractive source of energy in sailing yachts because conventionally they use a noisy generator to charge the batteries on board. Fuel cells charge the batteries without noise, smells or vibration.
We have taken the lead to demonstrate to boat designers what is possible in the future. There is much wasted space on a yacht due to the large heavy engine and batteries. Their layout can be redesigned to better accommodate the fuel cell, providing a much more open design making them potentially much faster for racing.

DL: What is Voller's law and do you think it will stand the test of time?

SV: In a nutshell, ‘people will not pay to be green’. We know if low-emission products are cheaper and better than the conventional alternative people will buy them. No brainer. But consumers will neither pay a ‘green premium’ in most cases, nor accept a performance premium or put themselves out. Yes there are a few exceptions to the rule, but these eco-warriors generally have no money and there are very few of them. Many people advocate Government legislation to make people go green (for example the EU banning conventional light bulbs). But people have to want to be green.

For example, imagine that a new type of gasoline (petrol) was introduced that you could run in your car that produced lower emission out of the tale pipe. But this new fuel cost more per gallon (litre) and when you filled your car with it the acceleration wasn’t nearly as good. How many people would actually queue up at that pump ?

ENDS

THE GAINERS

Trina Solar Ltd Adr NYSE:TSL Solar 14.57
Hoku Scientific (MM) NASDAQ:HOKU FuelCells 11.23
Enova Systems, AMEX:ENA FuelCells 10.50
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 9.21
Xantrex Technology Com Npv TSE:XTX Solar 6.73
Plug Power (MM) NASDAQ:PLUG FuelCells 6.60

THE GAINERS

Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 17.65
Voller Energy LSE:VLR FuelCells 12.90
Vrb Power Systems Inc. (Tier1) TSX:VRB EnergyStorage 9.52
Sustainable Energy Technologies Ltd. (Tier2) TSX:STG DiversifiedAltE 6.67
Solar Millennium Ag XE:S2M Solar 6.08
Fersa ESE:CFRS DiversifiedAltE 5.14

THE GAINERS

Conergy AG O.N. XE:CGY Solar 16.97
Satcon Technology (MM) NASDAQ:SATC DiversifiedAltE 13.21
Ecosec LSE:ECO CarbonTradingandFinancial 12.75
Environmental Power (MM) NASDAQ:EPG Biogas 8.44
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 8.11
Wfi Industries Com Npv TSE:WFI Geothermal 5.63

THE GAINERS

Plug Power (MM) NASDAQ:PLUG FuelCells 10.00
Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 9.27
Ecosec LSE:ECO CarbonTradingandFinancial 9.09
Satcon Technology (MM) NASDAQ:SATC DiversifiedAltE 7.43
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 7.26
Electro Energy Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:EEEI EnergyStorage 6.67

THE GAINERS

Enova Systems, AMEX:ENA FuelCells 16.52
Chofu Seisakusho Co JSX:5946 Solar 13.06
Electro Energy Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:EEEI EnergyStorage 10.29
Biofuel Energy (MM) NASDAQ:BIOF Bioethanol 6.38
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 6.16
Ormat Technologies NYSE:ORA Geothermal 6.15

The solar production output rankings are just about to be released according to Renewable Energy World. These rankings, compiled by Photon Magazine, are measured by the number of megawatt peak modules produced in a calendar year. What they have been able to reveal so far is that Q-Cells AG is the world's no. 1 with an annual production of 370 megawatts, they are just ahead of competitors (2) Sharp Corp., (3) Suntech Power, (4) Kyocera  on 207 MW and (5) First Solar with 200 MW.

So the big question is, with this limited preview data, how does that compare to the previous year, 2006?

In 2006, the rankings were;

1. Sharp
2. Q-Cells
3. Kyocera
4. Suntech Power
5. Sanyo
6. Mitsubishi
7. Motech
8. Schott
9. Deutsche Solar (a stock I must add! - Correction, this is the same as SolarWorld AG)
10. BP

So looking back, the big emerging trends are;

i) Output is still going up - from 2.54 GW in 2006 to 3.80 GW in 2007
ii) After years of going nowhere fast, thin film is really taking off - see the top 10 arrival of First Solar
iii) The Chinese are coming - see Suntech Power and probably one other top 10 player as yet to be disclosed (my guess)
iv) The oil companies, BP and Shell are much less significant players and I suspect diversifying out of Solar
v)  The  Japanese  conglomerates are being caught up by independent German and Chinese players - Sharp actually had declining production in 2007.

THE GAINERS

Quant Ene Fpo ASX:QTM HeatPumps 14.29
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 11.73
Novera LSE:NVE DiversifiedAltE 10.76
Missionbio Fpo ASX:MBT Biodiesel 8.42
Austrefuel Fpo ASX:ARW Biodiesel 8.33
China Sun SGX:C86 Bioethanol 7.79

PG&E Corp is quietly ramping up alternative energy assets - see page 14 of this pdf. What's quite exciting is that they are investing in some quite radical assets - like Finavera's 100 MW wavefarm and more recently, 175 MW of geothermal, subject to full regulatory approval. BTW, you should also be aware that PG&E Corp owns a subsidiary called (i.e. not the same company)  Pacific Gas and Electricity  which already has a substantial hydro resource.

It did occur to me that the diversified approach of the utility ramping up alternative energy assets, combined with  the dull conventional power assets make them a less volatile investment for investors worried about an alternative energy bubble. I suspect the utility angle on alternative energy is greatly under appreciated. With a stable, but consistent income of electricity paying customers, they have an easy to understand repeat business model, which may just make them the primary defensive stocks of the alternative energy sector.

THE GAINERS

Novera LSE:NVE DiversifiedAltE 26.40
Camco Intl LSE:CAO CarbonTradingandFinancial 9.38
Western Geopower (Tier2) TSX:WGP Geothermal 7.04
Renova LSE:RVA Bioethanol 6.56
Biofuel Energy (MM) NASDAQ:BIOF Bioethanol 5.86
Dynetek Industries Com Npv TSE:DNK EnergyStorage 5.00

THE GAINERS

Renewable Energy NK 1 XE:R3Q Solar 16.77
Umweltbank AG O.N. XE:UBK CarbonTradingandFinancial 15.89
Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 7.84
Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 7.82
Ocean Pwr Di LSE:OPT Wave 7.75
Sumitomo Titanium Corp. JSX:5726 Solar 7.49

Western Wind Energy has secured a new 100 Megawatt wind energy (and solar) site near Barstow, California. What's quite impressive about this is that small independent developers like WWE are still able to beat the big players - unnamed here, but I'd guess, Florida Power and Light.

Said Jeff Ciachurski, CEO of Western Wind;

"There was tremendous competition from the largest players in the investment banking and energy industries to acquire this exact piece of property" and "Western Wind´s access to proprietary information dating back to the 1970s allowed Western Wind to make and complete the opportunity, literally, a few weeks before our competition."

It's also a big boost to their portfolio of wind assets, which currently stands at just 34.5 MW.

THE GAINERS

First Solar (MM) NASDAQ:FSLR Solar 30.13
JA Solar Holdings, CO., Ltd. - Ads (MM) NASDAQ:JASO Solar 16.83
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 15.86
Ascent Solar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:ASTI Solar 15.63
Daystar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:DSTI Solar 14.65
Suntech Power Hldgs NYSE:STP Solar 14.55

Wacker Chemie AG, a division of which - Wacker Polysilicon - is one of the world's leading manufacturers of the silicon feedstock to the solar industry, has just announced preliminary business results for fiscal 2007, which show another record year in terms of sales and earnings. The Munich-based chemical company boosted its sales by 13 percent to EUR3.78bn (2006: EUR3.34bn), thanks chiefly to volume gains and higher product prices.

What interests us though is the Polysilicon division. According to the same press release "In 2007, WACKER POLYSILICON benefited from both price and production-volume increases, the latter stemming from expanded hyperpure polycrystalline silicon capacity. Polysilicon output rose 30 percent against 2006, reaching 8,100 metric tons. Based on preliminary figures, WACKER POLYSILICON expects to post full-year sales of EUR457m for 2007 (2006: EUR325.6m), a rise of 40 percent."

Wacker is in a very nice spot, because they are one of the top 3 producers of polysilicon in the world. I haven't been able to obtain 2007 figures, but in 2006, global polysilicon production was 36,000 tons, half of which went to the solar industry. Assuming 2007 production grew at the same rate as Wacker, output was probably just under 50,000 tons and more than half of that went to the solar industry. That would suggest that Wacker has something like a 20% market share.

THE GAINERS

Agcert Regs LSE:AGC CarbonTradingandFinancial 51.11
Q-Cells Ag XE:QCE Solar 13.56
Dyesol Ltd Fpo ASX:DYE Solar 11.43
Solarworld AG O.N. XE:SWV Solar 9.82
Vestas Wind Systems OMX:VWS Wind 8.84
Solaria ESE:CSLR Solar 7.34

There have been a spate of alt e companies lately, announcing what I would call "growing pains". Basically, the investment curves are not up to speed with the projected expansion plans and/or there are some general unanticipated delays occurring downstream, eating into profitability. Well, as the likes of Renewable Energy Corporation have discovered, it's not going down too well in the marketplace, which has been very jittery of late.

Latest in the list is Nordex AG, a leading developer and manufacturer of wind turbines. According to this report in Reuters;

"the CEO said he still expected Nordex to grow at a rate of 50 percent this year. Nordex, which failed to meet its own targets last year due to project delays, is aiming to reach sales of 1 billion euros ($1.45 billion) in 2008 and expects profitability to improve. By 2011, Nordex plans for sales to reach up to 4 billion euros and for the operating margin to rise to up to 12 percent".

On the face of it, how could a 50% growth in sales in 2008 and a quadrupling in those sales by 2011, with higher margins, be bad news?

Well, no one seems that impressed - as you'll see from the 1 year chart, the stock has dropped off considerably from just under 40 euros per share in early November, to just over 25 today, although it has not moved greatly in the last week.

It does seem that investors are taking for granted the exceptional growth rates of the alternative energy companies or they simply see them as fairly priced. Similarly, maybe management should have a bias in setting targets that they are more likely to outperform rather than fail to meet.

Still, how many other sectors are projecting sales growth like this?

THE GAINERS

Vrb Power Systems Inc. (Tier1) TSX:VRB EnergyStorage 29.41
JA Solar Holdings, CO., Ltd. - Ads (MM) NASDAQ:JASO Solar 12.24
Daystar Technologies (MM) NASDAQ:DSTI Solar 11.34
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 11.34
Uqm Technologies, AMEX:UQM FuelCells 10.87
Sunpower (MM) NASDAQ:SPWR Solar 10.86

A very well-researched piece in today's Wall Street Journal - Change in the air - about how U.S. Utility Firms (i.e. electricity providers) are now seeking to buy windfarms outright, rather than just the electricity that comes from them via power purchase agreements.

The reasons for this are;

i) ownership costs much the same as buying from independent producers

ii) utility companies have more insight and control over managing the contribution of intermittent wind and other sources on their grids

iii) the cost of buying in windpower electricity from independents is rising

You could also add to this that with many of the best windy sites taken onshore and planning hurdles seemingly rising rather than falling, this is a surefire way of locking in wind power into your portfolio at a fixed price for a long time. 

The arguments against are;

i) it's a transfer of risk from the Independents through the Utility to the end electricity customer which will lead to higher unit prices

ii) regulators see an emerging vertical integration structure, that can drive prices only one way, up

It makes me wonder about how many ways we could now divide the wind sector. Turbine manufacturers, component suppliers, developers, owners and now, Utility players?

THE GAINERS

Dyesol Ltd Fpo ASX:DYE Solar 20.00
Carnegie Fpo ASX:CNM Wave 14.29
Edenenergy Fpo ASX:EDE DiversifiedAltE 11.76
Solco Ltd Fpo ASX:SOO Solar 11.76
Agri Nrg Fpo ASX:AAE Bioethanol 10.71
Plug Power (MM) NASDAQ:PLUG FuelCells 7.36

THE GAINERS

Emcore (MM) NASDAQ:EMKR Solar 13.88
Energy Conversion Devices (MM) NASDAQ:ENER Solar 11.59
Austrefuel Fpo ASX:ARW Biodiesel 6.67
Sunpower (MM) NASDAQ:SPWR Solar 5.16
Memc Electronic Mtrl NYSE:WFR Solar 4.07
Jackgreen Fpo ASX:JGL DiversifiedAltE 4.00

A very informative piece here on alternative energy in Greece,  by Thrasy Petropoulos in Spero News.

I was staggered to learn that windfarm applications in Greece amount to an enormous 34,000 MW - almost 3 times the installed total capacity of existing electricity capacity - some 12,500 MW - of Europe's oldest nation. Obviously, they're not going to get that far - developers must be factoring in a high failure rate in planning applications, although getting past the bureaucrats has apparently got easier;  36 permits used to be required to site and connect a wind park, now it's only 9.

One of our wind stocks by the way, is Greek - C. Rokas SA.

A similar story with solar power - the existing target / project for 600MW, including 100MW on Crete is 6 times oversubscribed. I was recently in Athens and was struck by how many solar thermal units I saw on roofs. I was more struck though by the apparent wealth that did not exist there until recently. The economy was last recorded as growing at a very healthy 3.8% per annum (annualised Q3 2007) and Greece has become a kind of gateway to the Balkans for foreign investors.

A fast-growing, energy hungry economy makes the shift to alternative energy a lot easier. Given all of these, Greece deserves much more attention.

THE GAINERS

Agcert Regs LSE:AGC CarbonTradingandFinancial 43.14
Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 10.17
Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 10.00
Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 7.32
Repower Systems Ag XE:RPW Wind 5.92
Phoenix Solar AG O.N. XE:PS4 Solar 5.55

THE GAINERS

Run of River Power Inc. (Tier1) TSX:ROR DiversifiedAltE 16.67
Carnegie Fpo ASX:CNM Wave 12.00
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 7.85
Umweltbank AG O.N. XE:UBK CarbonTradingandFinancial 7.41
Millennium Cell Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:MCEL FuelCells 6.33
Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 6.25

THE GAINERS

Futuref Regs LSE:FFU Biodiesel 19.44
Hydrogenics Corp Com Npv TSE:HYG FuelCells 13.56
Sunopta (MM) NASDAQ:STKL Bioethanol 13.21
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 12.57
Camco Intl LSE:CAO CarbonTradingandFinancial 10.39
Canadian Solar Inc. - Common Shares (MM) NASDAQ:CSIQ Solar 9.98

Following on from my post from a few days ago "Can supercapacitors close the lithium ion performance gap?" a great tour de force in this week's Economist magazine (why do their editorial staff insist on calling it a newspaper? So pretentious!) - about the rise of the ultracapacitor in energy storage. It's well worth a read for the technical detail and for an overview of who's doing what.

I hadn't heard before of the XH-150 - pictured here -
a 3 way hybrid employing a petrol engine, conventional lithium-ion  batteries and ultracapacitors, made by AFS Trinity.

What this article misses though and makes me wonder, is all the hype that was created by the Lightning Car Company
and their planned use of high performance altairnano fast recharge lithium ion batteries. Read all about it here. As they are due to deliver their cars starting this year, you wonder why there isn't more excitement about the coming launch?

I suspect there's already a degree of ennui, mostly unfair, about this sector. It's not helped by the fact that heretofore, there are more than a few players, promising lots and delivering little, much like any new industry. So as this becomes apparent, expect plenty of fallout and rationalisation. After all, in the 1920s, there were 1000s of vehicle manufacturers, now only a few - see the talk here I organised by Professor Garel Rhys CBE, the leading global academic authority on the motor industry on pages 3-9 of this pdf last year,