THE GAINERS

Vrb Power Systems Inc. (Tier1) TSX:VRB EnergyStorage 14.29
Electro Energy Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:EEEI EnergyStorage 12.33
Sunline O.N. XE:SU3 Solar 11.69
Pacific Ethanol - Commonstock (MM) NASDAQ:PEIX Bioethanol 11.49
Satcon Technology (MM) NASDAQ:SATC DiversifiedAltE 9.26
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 9.09

Lithium ion batteries are pretty good and getting better - already, products like cameras and mp3 players that a few years ago were working on throwaway batteries are now switching to rechargeable lithium ion batteries. We've seen progress as well in the recharge times. The Prius with its Nickel Metal Hydride batteries seems just so yesterday. But we're not looking at an exponential improvement in battery technology, akin to Moore's law and computing power - as said in this interview 18 months ago, with MIT materials scientist and battery expert Yet-Ming Chiang, who cofounded the battery startup A123 Systems;

"One thing we have to keep in mind is you can't really conceive of anything like Moore's Law for electrochemical energy storage. Moore's Law was based on being able to perform similar functions [for computing] using either fewer electrons or, more recently, fewer photons. But energy is constrained by chemistry and the periodic table. Expecting Moore's Law from battery chemistry is like expecting steel next year to weigh half as much and be twice as strong. People who are working on better batteries are very optimistic. There's definitely room for growth; there are many avenues for improvement. If you look at it realistically, I'd say a factor of two improvement in the next decade is quite realistic. A factor of 10 is not."

Which strikes me as a very sober observation - just what I like.

So you can understand the fuss that has been generated by EEStor - still no company website - over the last couple of weeks and their battery-ultracapacitor hybrid technology based on barium-titanate powders which they claim  will dramatically outperform the best lithium-ion batteries on the market in terms of energy density, price, charge time, and safety. Pound for pound, this technology will also pack 10 times the punch of lead-acid batteries at half the cost and without the need for toxic materials or chemicals.

The hardcore figure you need to know is that they claim that their technology can deliver an energy density of about 280 watt hours per kilogram, compared with around 120 watt hours per kilogram for lithium-ion and 32 watt hours per kilogram for lead-acid gel batteries.

So  they appear to have doubled energy density in 18 months - rather than over 10 years, which is a bit like Moore's law after all. And they intend to use their technology in this vehicle the Zenn Car - a stock I will add shortly. And here's some youtube about the Zenn for your amusement;






For all that, there is still a big performance gap with electric cars that horsepower hungry American consumers are perhaps more sensitive to than Europeans;  the energy density of petrol or gas is way, way, more - about 13,000 watt hours per kilogram. Still, I suspect that this gap will be closed not so much by improvements in battery technology, but by weight reduction. There is still so much heavy metal in today's cars and many cumbersome safety features. The next generation of GPS satnavs will most likely calculate not just where you want to go, but keep any eye on the position of all other vehicles relative to you on the road, intervening automatically in the brakes where necessary. My view is that in the long run, say the next 15 years, the shift to plastics/lighter materials and a presumption towards crash avoidance rather than crash survival, will probably be more significant than batteries in extending range and power.

Anyway, If you want to understand the progress in batteries that has been made over the last year, I strongly recommend reading the collection of articles here under the MIT Technology Review Better Batteries Report.

THE GAINERS

Austrefuel Fpo ASX:ARW Biodiesel 16.67
Bdi-Biodiesel Int. XE:D7I Biodiesel 12.13
Ceres Power LSE:CWR FuelCells 11.65
Phoenix Solar AG O.N. XE:PS4 Solar 11.59
CO2 Grp. Fpo ASX:COZ CarbonTradingandFinancial 10.53
Sag Solarstrom Ag XE:SAG Solar 10.34

THE GAINERS

Cosan Limited CL A NYSE:CZZ Bioethanol 7.90
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 6.37
Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 5.84
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 5.71
US Bioenergy (MM) NASDAQ:USBE Bioethanol 5.63
Pacific Ethanol - Commonstock (MM) NASDAQ:PEIX Bioethanol 5.22

THE GAINERS

Agcert Regs LSE:AGC CarbonTradingandFinancial 46.67
Bdi-Biodiesel Int. XE:D7I Biodiesel 21.48
Centrosolar Grp. Ag XE:C3O Solar 17.73
Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 15.79
Jackgreen Fpo ASX:JGL DiversifiedAltE 14.29
Roth + Rau O.N. XE:R8R Solar 14.14

THE GAINERS

Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 19.05
Carnegie Fpo ASX:CNM Wave 16.67
Solco Ltd Fpo ASX:SOO Solar 15.00
Morphic Technologies AB Ser. B OMX:MORP-B FuelCells 14.72
Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 12.99
Greentech Energy Systems OMX:GES Wind 12.58

THE GAINERS

Austrefuel Fpo ASX:ARW Biodiesel 35.14
Agri Nrg Fpo ASX:AAE Bioethanol 24.24
CO2 Grp. Fpo ASX:COZ CarbonTradingandFinancial 23.08
Petratherm Fpo ASX:PTR Geothermal 21.32
Carnegie Fpo ASX:CNM Wave 17.07
Missionbio Fpo ASX:MBT Biodiesel 17.00

Canada, Montreal, 23rd January:

Hydro-Québec, a Québec state-owned electricity utility, is tendering for new wind farms and Repower Systems AG wants a big part of the pie.

According to the Gazette, ". . . among the scores of companies - Canadian and international - that participated in Hydro-Québec's current call for tender of 2,000 megawatts of wind power was REpower Systems, a German-based giant that has yet to make its mark in Canada".

and . . .

"Interest in the Quebec tender is intense. More than 25 developers proffered 66 bids for wind farms in proposals totalling more than 7,700 megawatts, or almost four times the amount that Hydro-Québec is seeking to add to its network. The new wind farms are expected to generate about $4 billion of investment".

If you're a West European wind turbine manufacturer, expanding in Canada makes a lot of sense. Deep down, I suspect many of them believe that the onshore West European wind boom, although not over, has its best years behind it. The other fastest growing markets over the next decade have to be the USA, South America and of course, Asia. Even the announcement yesterday ago by the European Union of even more ambitious - and less deliverable - renewables targets can't really change this.

THE GAINERS

Hansen Tran. LSE:HSN Wind 18.42
Nevada Geothermal Power Inc. (Tier2) TSX:NGP Geothermal 16.48
Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 15.00
Solon AG F.Solartech.Ag XE:SOO1 Solar 14.23
Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 13.04
Schmack Biogas NA O.N. XE:SB1 Biogas 11.98

Today is the closing day of the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi and it got me thinking that the received view and prognosis about the Middle East might well turn out to be mistaken.

I know that amongst Energy Hawks, there's a calcified view that militant islam/terrorism will only be defeated when certain oil states in the Middle East stop funding it because we all stop funding them and start using low carbon energy. This is the theme of Robert Zubrin's book, Energy Victory: Winning the War on Terror by Breaking Free of Oil  and frequently, a view shared by NY Times columnist, particulary on Iran, Thomas L. Friedman.

It's just that with all the turmoil in the markets, we may be losing sight of who's got the money and the big financial power shift underway from West to East. The best short report to read on this was recently produced by the McKinsey Global Institute - The New Power Brokers: how Oil, Asia, Hedge Funds and Private Equity are Shaping Global Capital Markets - and it is well worth a read.

That's why I was very interested to learn of Solar Millenium AG setting up a joint venture with Ferrostaal AG in Dubai, in order to exploit an anticipated boom in Concentrated Solar Power. Clearly, they project many future customers as coming from that region of the world. As they see it;

'The Middle East will be a key player for the solar energy market in the foreseeable future'.

MAN Solar Millennium made its first regional public appearance at the World Future Energy Summit Exhibition mentioned above and it would be interesting to know what kind of reception they got. Just as Russia plans to massively expand its nuclear power programme to extend the lifetime of its oil and gas reserves, you just might start to see Middle Eastern states doing the same with Concentrated Solar Power.

THE GAINERS

Biopetrol Inds Inh.SF 1 XE:B2I Biodiesel 5.32
Wind Hydgn Fpo ASX:WHN DiversifiedAltE 4.76
Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 4.17
Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 2.99
Agcert Regs LSE:AGC CarbonTradingandFinancial 2.50
Dyesol Ltd Fpo ASX:DYE Solar 1.96
Energy Dev Fpo ASX:ENE Wastegas 1.26

Ok, a lousy day on the markets, well probably much worse than that actually, let's call it abysmal. Nevertheless, it has been an opportunity for me to catch up on adding new stocks and an index as informed by one of you, a loyal follower of this blog.

So here they all are;

Terna Energy - wind and hydropower, based in Greece - very like . . .
Innergex Renewable Energy - also wind and hydro, based in Canada

Then I've added;

Acucar Guarani - a brazilian firm which purchases, cultivates and crushes sugarcane to produce sugar, ethanol and electricity.
Arise Technologies Corp - a Canadian solar firm (odd how a semi-arctic nation develops a niche in solar, a bit like Renewable Energy Corp in Norway)
Wacker Chemie AG - a chemical company who has a major silicon feedstock production operation for the solar industry

Finally, many thanks to a gentleman from Thailand who emailed me about a new index not included here. I've just added the HSBC Global Low Carbon Production Index to my list of Global Alternative Energy Indices. From my past experience, I can tell that the data behind most indices constitute an expensive, high margin business to the consumer. That's why - unlike stocks - there's not much more I can tell you about them at this stage other than they exist and list them all in one place. 

My general view is that for an index to succeed and be widely known, especially in a new sector, you have to make the data free and easily available. Surely this is what has given the Wilder Hill Clean Energy Index the renown it has, way ahead of many Blue Chip bank equivalents.

THE GAINERS

Ceramic Fuel LSE:CFU FuelCells 16.22
Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 10.33
China Sun SGX:C86 Bioethanol 9.21
Sumitomo Titanium Corp. JSX:5726 Solar 8.72
Cropenergies Ag XE:CE2 Bioethanol 8.55
Acta LSE:ACTA FuelCells 7.14

THE GAINERS

Edenenergy Fpo ASX:EDE DiversifiedAltE 13.89
Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 13.64
ECODIESEL ON NM BOV:ECOD3 Biodiesel 9.78
Nordex AG O.N. XE:NDX1 Wind 8.67
China Sun SGX:C86 Bioethanol 8.57
Sag Solarstrom Ag XE:SAG Solar 6.21

Technically, a bear market kicks in when a given market falls below 20% from its high. So depending on which index you look at, we're already there. As of last night, the Dow Jones is down 14.5%, the Russell 2000 index down 20% and the Nasdaq, 10% off the beginning of the year. 

The question for us is, where are we with alternative energy stocks?

Here's my existing list of Global Alternative Energy Indices - which I suspect is not complete. Email me if you have some others you think I should know about . . . I do read and act on them (thanks by the way, to the person who told me about Arise Technologies Corporation - stock now being added).

Well, I'm going to start with an American index, the Wilder Hill  Clean  Energy Index, because it's still the best known. It's down 24.57% since it's peak on December 26th last year, or about where it was a month earlier in November. So that suggest for its own components, a bear market.

Now back to the global indices. They are quite hard to get data on, as it's usually a premium paid-for service, but here are the ones I have from freely available data.

The Dax Global Alternative Energy Index - see here - again, it peaked in late December at 218.25 and closed last night at 186.44 - so it's down 14.58%. No bear market here then.

The Renixx Renewable Energy Industrial  Index World - see here - hard to read, but the chart suggests a fall from over 1900 to 1400, that's a pretty severe pasting, at least 25% off it's peak.

So I hope that puts you a little bit more in the picture as several newspapers and websites in recent days have been running stories about alternative energy stocks showing big falls.

Let's put this in context.

The important point about the alternative energy sector is that  it has not been driven by Greenspan's cheap credit boom. The drivers to date have been the high price of oil, government regulations and targets, concerns over energy security and the environment and improving technology.

And as far as I can see, none of these have changed in the last month and nor are they about to. But the caveat is that you would have to expect market inflows to drop off substantially during this period of uncertainty for the world economy, because there's less investment money to go around.

THE GAINERS

Ausbiodesl Fpo ASX:ABJ Biodiesel 15.79
Green Rock Fpo ASX:GRK Geothermal 8.89
Active Power (MM) NASDAQ:ACPW EnergyStorage 7.31
Ballard Power Systems - Common Shares (MM) NASDAQ:BLDP FuelCells 4.94
Medis Technologies Ltd. (MM) NASDAQ:MDTL FuelCells 4.79
Econergy Intl LSE:ECG CarbonTradingandFinancial 3.75

THE GAINERS

Carnegie Fpo ASX:CNM Wave 14.55
Climate Exch. LSE:CLE CarbonTradingandFinancial 11.76
CO2 Grp. Fpo ASX:COZ CarbonTradingandFinancial 9.37
Geodynamic Fpo ASX:GDY Geothermal 9.16
Mechanical Technology Incorporated (MM) NASDAQ:MKTY FuelCells 7.79
Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 6.56

THE GAINERS

Ceres Power LSE:CWR FuelCells 32.13
Environmental Power (MM) NASDAQ:EPG Biogas 10.89
Climate Exch. LSE:CLE CarbonTradingandFinancial 8.42
Itm Power LSE:ITM FuelCells 7.58
Western Geopower (Tier2) TSX:WGP Geothermal 7.32
Sumitomo Titanium Corp. JSX:5726 Solar 7.31

Centrosolar AG, has just announced plans for an enormous increase in pv module production in Wismar, in ex-East Germany (see my earlier post East Germany's final recovery from Communism into Solar Valley?)

According to Centrosolar, production will grow very fast:

" . . . from a starting level of 40 MWp in 2007, the capacity for 2008 as a whole will already double to 85 MWp, increasing again to around 165 MWp in 2009. Both locations will have a capacity of at least 195 MWp by the start of 2010. This corresponds to a revenue volume generated with solar modules of more than EUR 500 million."

A few months ago I was chatting to a solar expert who had visited a plant in Eastern Germany. What interested me was how viable were these businesses when Chinese production started gearing up. The point he made startled me - because solar factories receive such large subsidies in setting up in East Germany, it's actually going to be harder for China to compete. And lo and behold, it does seem to be true in Centrosolar's case too. Apparently, " . . . the project will probably receive a 30% subsidy from the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The remainder will be financed by bank loans (My thoughts: probably from state-owned banks at a non-commercial rate) and leasing. "

One day, Germany's solar boom will end. But until it does, a lot of people are going to continue enjoying the ride.

THE GAINERS

Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (MM) NASDAQ:QTWW FuelCells 15.98
Actelios BIT:ACT Wastegas 15.06
Agcert Regs LSE:AGC CarbonTradingandFinancial 10.62
Spire (MM) NASDAQ:SPIR Solar 9.73
D1 Oils LSE:DOO Biodiesel 8.50
Yingli Grn Engy Adr NYSE:YGE Solar 8.07
JA Solar Holdings, CO., Ltd. - Ads (MM) NASDAQ:JASO Solar 7.56

THE GAINERS

Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 15.00
Ocean Pwr Di LSE:OPT Wave 6.37
Satcon Technology (MM) NASDAQ:SATC DiversifiedAltE 5.52
Solco Ltd Fpo ASX:SOO Solar 5.26
Nevada Geothermal Power Inc. (Tier2) TSX:NGP Geothermal 5.13
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 4.88

Canada, a nation long-overshadowed by its mighty southern neighbour can look forward to some very good years ahead. That Canada has enormous amounts of natural resources that the rest of the world wants; uranium, oil, minerals etc. is  widely known and underscored by the Canadian Dollar reaching parity with the greenback late last year. Much less appreciated though is Canada's quiet but no less significant expansion into alternative energy.

Today's article in Renewable Energy Access "A Snapshot of Canadian Green Power 2007/2008" ought to be a wakeup call to the investment world.  The truth is however that Canada's Stock Exchanges have long been successful in attracting quite a few listings by alternative energy companies both from Canada and abroad. So I've decided to list them all here, in no particular order;

Canadian Firms listing in Canada

VRB Power Systems
Xantrex Technology
Sustainable Energy Technologies
Boralex
Dynetek Industries
Western Geopower
Plutonic Power
Carmanah Solar Technologies
Western Wind Energy
Run of River Power
Canadian Hydro Developers

Canadian Companies listed outside of Canada

Ballard Power Systems
Canadian Solar Inc

Foreign Firms listed on Canadian Exchanges

Nevada Geothermal
Finavera Renewables

Have I missed any out? Please email me if you know some that should be included and I will load them up on AEI.

For Hydro and Wind power potential, it doesn't really get any better than Canada. Vast tracts of largely unpopulated land and water and a relatively low cost of doing business. There has to be a strong bullish case for Canada and its currency over the next decade. And no question, a niche worth watching has to be Canadian alternative energy firms.

THE GAINERS

Japan Wind Development Co., Ltd. JSX:2766 Wind 14.02
SAO MARTINHO S.A. - SAO MARTINHO BOV:SMTO3 Bioethanol 9.91
Cosan Limited CL A NYSE:CZZ Bioethanol 8.06
Actelios BIT:ACT Wastegas 7.27
Helius Eng LSE:HEGY Biomass 6.67
Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 5.88

German firm, SolarWorld AG, has just donated approximately 2,000 solar modules to the Vatican to be installed on the Paul VI audience hall roof. The solar system will produce some 315,500 kilowatt-hours of power a year, offsetting some 315 tons of carbon dioxide emissions, it said.

That is a lot of solar panels - I estimate about 240 kilowatts of peak power - so this is no small donation, perhaps a million euros, although plenty of repeat publicity. If you look at this aerial map here of the Vatican - you can see why this building is a great site for solar power - a nice flat roof. And Rome of course, I can personally attest, is very hot in the summer.

Anyway, back to SolarWorld. Unusually among German solar companies it is vertically integrated, combining all stages of the solar value chain, from the raw material silicon to turn-key solar power plants. Moreover, the firm has a sizeable presence in Sweden and the USA. And I recommend looking at slide number 8 of one of their recent presentations; this forecasts a near quadrupling of solar production from 2090 MW in 2007 to 7619 in 2010. That is staggering growth, much faster than I was familiar with.

THE GAINERS

Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 30.24
Conergy AG O.N. XE:CGY Solar 12.86
Edenenergy Fpo ASX:EDE DiversifiedAltE 10.84
Solar Millennium Ag XE:S2M Solar 8.90
SAO MARTINHO S.A. - SAO MARTINHO BOV:SMTO3 Bioethanol 8.67
Ldk Solar CO Adr NYSE:LDK Solar 8.07

THE GAINERS

Western Wind Energy Corp (Tier2) TSX:WND Wind 15.13
Finavera Renewables Inc. (Tier2) TSX:FVR DiversifiedAltE 14.89
Petrotec Ag XE:PT8 Biodiesel 12.73
Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 12.37
SAO MARTINHO S.A. - SAO MARTINHO BOV:SMTO3 Bioethanol 5.17
Missionbio Fpo ASX:MBT Biodiesel 3.57

Writing my latest newsletter yesterday (have you signed up yet? You should, it's free!) I was quite taken by how two Australian stocks, Australian Renewable Fuels and Australian Biodiesel Group have clearly not had the same upside - far from it - from a new government in Australia as most of the other alternative energy stocks down under. This is to do with unfavourable changes to Australia's biodiesel tax credit program as well as the more mundane causes like a rise in feedstock costs etc.

Today though I read with some alarm that German biodiesel subsidies are on the way out as of 1st January this year. As this very informative article said, ". . . a consequence of these setbacks is the decline in shares of German biofuel refineries like Verbio, BDI Biodiesel and Biopetrol. These were promising companies until recently, and now face million-dollar losses."

This is a big deal not least because a very large chunk of the global biodiesel market - not unlike solar - is in Germany.

Still, for all the gloom and doom about the biofuels bust, whether ethanol in the Midwest or rapeseed produced biodiesel in Germany (although not in Brazil, more later), I keep thinking about this great piece I devoured this morning in the Daily Telegraph by Tom Stevenson. One of his bullet points toward the end was;

". . . government biofuels targets mean that within 15 years 12pc of the world's agricultural land will be needed for transport against just 2pc today. Farmers, food manufacturers, fertiliser makers and anyone involved in booosting crop yields and improving  the efficiency of irrigation stand to gain"

So in the long run, biofuels are still very much destined for tremendous growth - a sixfold increase in 15 years. The point here is all that really matters is where you source them from. Germany is and will remain a high-cost country.

European and American Farmers are on a hiding to nothing if they think they can compete with Brazilian farmers like these !
Brazil and other developing nations, with vast untapped hectares of land and low cost workforces are certainly not going to have any trouble producing low-cost biofuels - unless Western governments continue to hand out huge subsidies to their own. And Germany, one suspects, quite apart from the environmental arguments, has already taken a view that this is a battle they can't win.

THE GAINERS

Vrb Power Systems Inc. (Tier1) TSX:VRB EnergyStorage 33.33
Xethanol Corp. AMEX:XNL Bioethanol 18.29
Solar2 Ag XE:S2R Solar 17.33
Distributed Energy Systems (MM) NASDAQ:DESC FuelCells 10.17
Millennium Cell Inc. (MM) NASDAQ:MCEL FuelCells 9.86
CO2 Grp. Fpo ASX:COZ CarbonTradingandFinancial 9.37
Run OF River Power Inc. (Tier1) TSX:ROR DiversifiedAltE 7.41

Biomimetic nano-technology is not a term often heard in the context of renewable energy – except in the rapidly developing field of dye-sensitised photovoltaics.

Image: the stuff of future flexible cells, ruthenium dye in preparation in Dyesol labs

 Dye Solar Cells (DSCs) are the most advanced of the new generation of ‘non-silicon’ solar cells that are rapidly emerging from research efforts around the world into commercial solar products. DSCs are made with cheap materials, can be easily manufactured as flexible products and have very useful performance attributes such as being able to generate electricity in very low light long after silicon cells have stopped.

 

As a result, in real world conditions, such as in tropical climates and smoggy cities, DSC is capable of outperforming even high quality silicon products on the basis of annual kWh produced per square metre of product.

 

DSC mimics nature in the sense that it uses a dye and a two step process for generating electrons, very similar to the process in plants where that green dye called chlorophyll captures photons and produce sugars and oxygen.

 

In DSC a porous layer of nano-particles of titania dioxide – the common white stuff used in toothpaste and white paint - i