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Honda gambles on a near hydrogen future with the FCX . . . are they right?
Over the weekend, I almost fell out of my chair on learning that at the Tokyo Motor Show, Honda announced that in 2008 the FCX - a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle was going into production and would cost approx. $100,000 a pop.
![]() You can view more details about the FCX from Honda's official site here. What really hit me about this news was; i) The price - there are plenty of people (especially governments) out there who will spend $100,000 on the world's most environmentally friendly car ii) The decision to go into production before the hydrogen infrastructure was in place. Said Mr Takeo Fukui, President and CEO of Honda, " . . .when the car was invented, countries weren’t full of petrol stations” and “ . . . when the demand is there it [the hydrogen economy] will happen.” iii) A new high for platinum. It came at the same time as a record spike in the price of platinum to $1,464 an ounce, a key cost ingredient in fuel cells as the catalyst used to facilitate the reaction of hydrogen and oxygen. A few years ago, I wrote a piece for the now defunct magazine, Power Economics, entitled "The Hydrogen Economy, what Price and When?" and for various reasons, didn't see any big future for hydrogen vehicles until at least 2040. It looks like I may have to eat my words . . . or will I? It occurred to me that Honda may have taken the decision to produce and sell this car at a loss, even a big one, for the forseeable future. I know of no breakthrough in fuel cell technology that has made it possible to bring down the cost of a vehicle to this kind of price. Less than a week ago, the cost of the cheapest fuel cell vehicle was estimated at $1 million. And as for the hydrogen infrastructure, I bet that the first buyers of hydrogen filling station equipment are going to be Honda dealerships. Hydrogen, especially green hydrogen, derived from the carbon free electrolysis of distilled water, is very expensive and they could cut a good margin here. Our interest though is that the FCX is a massive development for those listed companies involved in hydrogen infrastructure; Distributed Energy Systems Hydrogenics Quantum Technologies My guess is that they are poised to win quite a lot of new business. We shouldn't be surprised that Honda is prepared to sell a vehicle at a massive loss. According to Wired magazine, GM apparently took apart a Toyota Prius in their Chop Shop and could not see how they made any money on it. But cash rich, technology friendly, successful japanese car companies have a quite different investment horizon to the likes of Ford, GM or Chrysler - at least one of which may go bust in the next few years. Still, it's a big risk for Honda and just how big will their initial production run be? If the Toyota Prius is anything to go by - I'd guess 40,000 in the first year. Meanwhile the price of oil is still going up . . . |


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