Does the price of oil have a direct impact on alternative energy?

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Received opinion seems to think so. Take a look at this piece on CNN yesterday "Sector Snap: Solar Stocks Rise" which said;

"Shares of alternative energy companies tend to rise when oil and gasoline prices climb, as investors seek to invest in companies which will benefit from government interest in other energy sources".

I think rushing into alternative energy when oil prices go up is just a bit too simplistic. Instead I would pay attention to some other metrics, each of which are quite sector-specific. Here are some of them listed below;

  • Solar PV - keep an eye on silicon prices

  • Hydropower - rainfall, the more there is, the cheaper the hydropower. The cost per kilowatt hour really does vary in price according to seasonal rainfall

  • Wind - watch construction costs, steel costs, carbon fibre prices and average annual windspeeds.

  • Energy Storage - lithium prices

  • Carbon Trading - the most heavily traded carbon contracts are on the European Climate Exchange where prices are highest.

  • Fuel Cells - Platinum prices

Of course, in a very broad sense, it's not wrong to say that if the price of oil goes up then interest and investment dollars will flow to alternative energy. Certainly, if the price of oil was where it was in 1999, just $10 a barrel, it's hard to see that we would not have had the boom we have been having in recent years.

All the same, I think it's more important to pay closer attention to the direct material and other cost inputs that are so important to the finished alternative energy production price.

Like anything else, if you want the truth, there's no alternative to a greater depth in knowledge. In other words, it always pays to delve a little bit deeper.

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