To truly understand the supply demand mismatch in the solar pv industry, I recommend you read this free report entitled "Polysilicon: Supply, Demand,& Implications for the PV Industry" , published by the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development.

As the report makes lucidly clear, see pages 13-14, in 2000, silicon production capacity produced 24,000 metric tons. In 2005, this had grown to just 31,280 metric tons. The central reason why polysilicon capacity was so slow to grow was because it was living off the silicon glut in the wake of the dot com bust of 2000. Meanwhile, solar pv started to boom - quadrupling from just under 400 MW in 2001 to 1727 MW in 2005. No wonder solar prices have not fallen, because silcon feedstock production (60 - 70% of final cost to the consumer) has not kept pace with demand.

The projection from this report though is that production will reach 72,000 mt in 2010.

So to see how this pans out keep any eye on the listed polycrystalline producers; REC and MEMC and pay attention to the silicon recyclers; Renesola and SolarWorld.