If anyone out there with a vision of the future hasn't heard of Ray Kurzweil, then I suggest you read his books "The age of spiritual machines" and "The sigularity is near".  This last one was only published last year.

But why am I telling you this?

Ray Kurzweil, an eminent futurologist, emphasises the law of accelerating returns. The two most important concepts are;

i) The rate of progress is not constant

ii) Change is accelerating

Ok, so what's my point?

Clean Edge has just produced their latest report on the next 10 years of alternative energy. Sales in this industry are forecast to rise from $40 Billion in 2005 to $167 Billion in 2015. What I find particularly interesting is that compared to their previous year's report, they have included biofuels. This means that their 2014 estimate of $100 Billion hadn't anticipated the emergence of biofuels, in the face of high oil prices. In 2005, their estimate of the biofuels industry was at $15 Billion and in 2015, $52.5 Billion.

So all I'm saying is that in the alternative energy field, the rate of change is not constant and yes, change, in the face of externalities like oil prices and technology changes, is accelerating.

Expect plenty more to come . . . I mean, here's another . . . the Loremo . . .

One of the difficulties facing investors in alternative energy, is that the stocks are often volatile small caps and the universe ain't that big either. That's why I was very interested to read today ;

"Later this year an ETF (exchange traded fund) is expected to be released by PowerShares Capital Management. It will be traded on the American Stock Exchange and give investors an opportunity to buy and sell a package of alternative energy stocks throughout the trading day."

ETF's are a route into the market at much lower cost and risk. It's also a sign of increasing liquidity in the market, which will help draw in bigger investors. What's slightly perplexing here though is that there's already an existing ETF, the Wilder Hill Clean Energy Index , which is sponsored by PowerShares.

Maybe PowerShares have decided they'd rather brand their own ETFs than partner with someone else . . .