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July 2005 ArchivesNasdaq-listed Medis Technologies has just become the first micro fuel cell company to receive a major order - $50 million - for their disposable portable power packs for consumer electronics. Consumer Electronics are widely considered the holy grail for micro fuel cells with 1.5 billion portable devices in use around the world, forecast to become 2 billion by 2007. In this very interesting interview in Red Herring, CEO Robert K. Lifton talks about the prospects for his company. The technology is unusual because instead of using methanol, Medis prefers sodium borohydride as the lower cost fuel of choice. What's more, all those futuristic programmes and pictures you see of laptops and mobile phones running on internal fuel cells just might never happen. As Lifton points out, that would require getting 1000s of Original End Manufacturers to change their design around a given fuel cell. "Integration doesn't make sense as a business proposition". So the Medis Power Pack only plugs in externally, requiring no input from the OEMs which could have lost years in redeveloping, retooling and retesting. Very practical. Probably one of the reasons why Medis will be the first to market, ahead of NEC, Sanyo, Sony, Toshiba et al. The Canadia Fim and Nasdaq listed, Ballard Power Systems, has just posted a slightly reduced Q2 loss, of $29.5 million. BPS is the world's leading supplier of fuel cells, fuel cell engines, fuel cell components and electric drive systems to the car industry. Its stock flew high in the late 1990s when fuel cell cars were widely perceived to be just around the corner . . . but they weren't. 6 years later, BPS is still trying to get out of the laboratory and into the market. Still, it has big clients, including Ford and Mercedes Benz who's own investment in fuel cells is tied up with companies like BPS. In transport though, because of the prohibitive cost, it looks more likely that fuel cells will break only into rich world government funded public transport buses and the deep pockets of the US military. Fuel cells in regular passenger cars are some way off . . . Yesterday, Amex listed O2 Diesel closed down 8.3%. The company aims to break into the US diesel market, which powers 94% of US freight, with an optimal blend of ethanol and mineral diesel. These additionally tuned oxygenates will remove many of the harmful pollutants that typically come from diesel. Many parts of America such as California have demanding air quality standards which ought to encourage the take up of 02 Diesel. But it's a tall order to design and implement a complete supply and refuelling programme. They are however exploring the military market and there's plenty of political support for the growing use of ethanol in America. Definitely one to watch . . . AIM listed Alkane Energy Plc, a commercial producer of coal mine methane which it generates from abandoned coal mines, has had a particularly meteoric rise these last few months. From 11p in mid-March to up to 58p a few weeks ago. Today it closed up 6% at 34p. Even more unusual, is that the company claims not to know why. In a statement earlier this month, the company said;
Well, I've got a theory why Alkane is doing so well. Europe has now had 7 months of carbon trading, a system designed to make it more expensive to burn coal - which is currently cheaper - than half as carbon-emitting natural gas. It has been calculated that should the price of carbon exceed EUR 28 a ton, then coal becomes less economic than gas. Two weeks ago, that price hit 29, although it was down again to 18 last week. It's back up again to 21-22 today. Many forecast it could reach 40 plus before the end of the year. The point is this - if coal really does become forcibly uneconomic, then a substantial number of mines will become available for Alkane Energy to capture the methane from . . . Announced at market opening today, Solar Fabrik is doubling its annual production capacity to 30 MW due to a strategic purchase of wafer trader Global Expertise Wafer Division Ltd. (GEWD). By purchasing the Malaysian company, Solar-Fabrik AG is aiming to insure a supply of solar wafers exceeding 30 megawatt (MW) for 2006. At the time of writing, the market responded favourably, pushing Solar Fabrik up by just under 10% to EUR 11.75. Ensuring a supply of solar wafers is a big deal, because there is an enormous supply bottleneck. That's because the silicon wafer market has not kept pace with the demand for solar panels these last few years. Solar Module manufacturers used to be able to use the cast-offs from silicon chip manufacturing. However, in just a few years, chip manufacturing has become so efficient that there isn't much silicon left over. This plus compound growth of 30% a year in solar PV production has helped push up the price of high grade silicon from $9 per kilo to a forecast $60 this year. So it's easy to see why companies like Solar-Fabrik are reaching back into the supply chain. Copenhagen listed Greentech Energy Systems stock continues to impress - from a low of 17.9 in early May, it yesterday closed up at 37.9. Since announcing a Q1 operating profit of DKK 1.50m (USD 0.25m) on May 31st, this company's stock has been consistently improving. Unusually for a small windfarm developer and operator the company plans significant expansion abroad, namely Italy and Poland.This strategy makes sense because having your windfarms in very diverse locations, hedges the risk of the inherent intermittency in wind power. Denmark has led the world in its adoption of windpower. It even has the world's largest manufacturer, Vestas, also a listed company. Figures out late last week show that for the first time in 2004, Germany outproduced Japan in solar panels, making it the no. 1 producer in the world. Overall, Japan still has the most solar power, at over 1.13 Gigawatts compared to Germany's 0.79 gigawatts. So why is Germany growing so fast, 140% in 1 year? A recent law has made it viable to start producing large scale solar plants in Germany, of 10s or even hundreds of kilowatts, many times larger than a conventional home setup. But beware of German politics. September's National Election offer a real chance that the ruling Green / SPD government under Schroeder will lose and the opposition are talking openly about reducing renewable subsidies. That's why Germany's many listed solar companies like Solarworld AG, Conergy AG, Solar-Fabrik AG and others would prefer a Schroeder victory. London Aim-listed Voller Energy which earlier in June achieved EU wide certification for the first mains strength portable fuel cells, which run on hydrogen, is now struggling to perform as a stock. At the time of posting, Voller Energy was down 12.5% on the day to 42p, even reaching a new low earlier of 38p. It reached a high of 85p in March 2005, soon after going public in February. In a very interesting article in Armed Forces International, CEO Stephen Voller, reveals his business philosophy - Voller's Law; Consumers will not pay a premium to be environmentally friendly nor will they accept a performance premium to be environmentally friendly. Yours truly agrees with Mr Voller, that fuel cell companies must be market rather than technology driven. Right now though, the market is driving Voller Energy in the wrong direction. Nasdaq listed Spire Corporation is the world’s leading supplier of the manufacturing equipment and technology needed to manufacture solar photovoltaic power. Just two days ago, they announced an order for four SPI-SUN SIMULATOR(TM) 350i photovoltaic module testers from First Solar, LLC of Perrysburg, Ohio. This promptly sent the stock to a new high of USD 13.37 on 20th July from opening below 7 just two days earlier. Solar electric power is a very diverse market. Spire is at the start of the supply chain where there is arguably much less competition and higher profits compared to say retail suppliers and installers of solar module systems. Another listed company high up in the supply chain is Tokuyama, a major supplier of polycrystalline silicon feedstock. Silicon prices have risen hugely over the last few years and to be engaged at the start of the silicon supply chain, looks like the right place to be. Renewable Energy Holdings Plc yesterday announced that provided certain conditions are met, it will buy 2 wind farm projects in Germany. The cost of the projects to REH is expected to be GBP33 million, with 80% funded through debt financing and the remaining GBP6.6 million supplied through REH's existing cash reserves. Today the shares are trading up by over 3.5% to 55p. It is still way off its April peak though of 75.5p. Since going public last year, the plan was that 85% per cent of the money raised was earmarked for investment in proven renewable technologies such as windfarms. Fine. But it's the CETO wave device that I'm really interested in. This is currently being tested but no date has yet been give for its commercial release. Testing in this sort of technology has happened for at least 3 decades. And it's still really hard to buy tidal/ocean power devices off the shelf from anywhere. Let's see if REH can crack it. Arguably, a precursor to any investment in a sector by Institutional Fund Managers is the establishment of an index that defines a sector and enables third parties to judge their performance. Well KLD Research and Analytics have just done that, launching the KLD Global Climate 100. This is now the 3rd such index, coming after the launch earlier this year of the similar 50 stock strong New Energy Finance Global Energy Innovation Index and the Wilderhill Clean Energy Index which came first but includes some OTC stocks. Said Peter D. Kinder, founder and president of KLD Research & Analytics, Inc. "The Global Climate 100 includes companies making meaningful contributions to the commercialization of renewable energies such as solar and wind, future fuels such as natural gas and hydrogen, and innovations or applications of new technologies that help to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases". Expect to see a few more indices established over the coming years. Despite her big movie combacks in the Kill Bill films, Daryl Hannah has revealed that saving the planet is more important to her than making movies. Not only does she have a solar-powered home, she drives a 100% biodiesel car. Biodiesel is a lean burning alternative diesel-like fuel produced from energy crops which produce vegetable oil, tallow or cooking oils. Diesel fuel for passenger cars is virtually non-existant in America and biodiesel, even less, so this is very unusual. Diesel exists in the USA to power freight transport. And one listed company, O2diesel, hopes to turn a significant portion of that into biodiesel. Their target market is refueling for bus, trucks and off-road fleets. So where does Daryl Hannah get her biodiesel from? For an enormous country and relatively few people, Canada has an abundance of alternative energy stocks. Take wind for example. There is Sea Breeze Power Corp, Canadian Hydro Developers, Boralex and Talisman. And just over a week ago Creststreet Kettles Hill Windpower completed a CAD $40 m IPO creating yet another. In most of the developed world, erecting windfarms can run up against many hurdles; land constraints, planning permission, environmental impact and grid connection costs to remote locations. Canada hardly has these problems at all. There's no shortage of land, planning permission is easy, the environmental impact is negligable and grid connection costs can be almost nothing if the plant is located next to one of their many hydro faciltiies. So Canada's expansion in windpower has a long, long way to go. Suzlon Wind Energy, the world's 6th largest manufacturer of wind turbines is going public. Speaking after the filing of the DRHP, Tulsi Tanti, Chairman & Managing Director, Suzlon Energy said, "We have been in the business of wind energy for over ten years. We are India's leading manufacturer of wind turbine generators. Our accumulated sales were 1,126.6 MW as of March 31, 2005. We also installed 42.8% of the total capacity installed in India during the year ended December 31, 2004 and were the sixth largest wind turbine manufacturer in the world". Manufacturing wind turbines is still largely dominated by Danish and German companies in their respective countries. However, you have to wonder how much longer they can compete when countries like India and China start to move in. My guess is that some time over the next couple of years, these companies will be forced to open a manufacturing plant in China and close down a couple of factories at home. Let's see . . . Spanish based Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologia SA's Wind Division has just won a contract in Italy for 116 MW of wind turbines, as well as their installation, operation and maintenance. Gamesa sticks out as a player in the wind business who not only manufacture, but do everything else as well. They really are vertically integrated. The contract in Italy is of note because they have heretofore mostly catered to the domestic market in Spain. Gamesa also makes aeronautical components, even working on Europe's Typhoon fighter jet. In broad terms, the development of wind power has closely mirrored the development of aircraft. From wood, to metal, to composites. For both industries, the challenge was to create materials strong and light enough to withstand increasing speeds and stresses. And that engineering envelope is still being pushed. The American Midwest has made money out of farming hogs / swine the 19th Century, leading to the creation of the first modern futures markets. Now there's a new angle, trading the Greenhouse Gas Emissions that come from Pig Manure. And Agcert, a leading Bioenergy Company listed on London's Aim shows the way. Since going public in June, the stock price has risen from 140p to 230p today, valuing the company at around $500 million. In an interview with yesterday's Sunday Telegraph, Al Tank, Agcert's CEO, described as "a compact farm boy from Iowa with an unnerving knowledge of pigs . . . and a crisp, clean, white collar", set forth his vision. Amongst several salient points, there was even a China Story - "Half the world's pigs are in China, which is a unique opportunity," says Tank. What's particularly interesting here is that 20% of world GHG emissions are from Agriculture. Why? Because methane - from farm animal manure - is a 20 times more powerful GHG than Carbon Dioxide. Moreover, captured methane can be burnt to provide heat and electricity, whereas CO2 can only be sequestrated at considerable cost. So there you go. Now you know the true value of methane. Having gone public last year in June 2004, UK Aim-listed Biofuels Corporation has struggled since April due to delays in bringing production on line. The company is building biodiesel processing plants. Yesterday however, the stock had a great day yesterday surging 39 to 184p after the biodiesel group confirmed its Teesside plant is on schedule. The group said it has sold 64pc of start-up production and has a strong lists of leads in respect of a further 25,000 tonnes per month - more than three times the 7,500 tonnes per month remaining to match full production. This is important because the company could now be judged to have sufficient sales contracts to commence full production at its new Teesside plant on schedule by the end of September. Biodiesel in Europe seems poised for expansion due to non-binding EU targets of 20% blend of biofuels into petroleum fuels by 2020. Plug Power, a nasdaq listed stock, today announced a big sales contract with Tyco and at the time of writing the stock has jumped over 12%. Plug Power is one of the leading manufacturers of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells for stationary applications. Fuel Cells are coming, but not everyone agrees with what they are best for. Some wonder if they make better generators than back-up batteries. Let's see. The 5 kw fuel cell though seems set for the remote location first, before it comes into our homes. United Solar Ovonic, fully owned by listed parent company Energy Conversion Devices, is doubling its production capacity to 60 MW to keep up with demand. This matters because ECD is the largest producer of amorphous silicion in the world and it just got bigger. What is amorphous silicion? It is a type of ligher and flexible solar panelling which has a much wider range of application, typically in roofing as a membrane. Interviewed in Wired Magazine yesterday, a leading GM Vice-President, Larry Burns, was quizzed about whether GM had got it right, taking a bet on hydrogen fuel cells over hydbrids. Was there any point he was asked to a hydrogen economy if it was powered by carbon? "Quite honestly, being in the car business, I don't care whether the hydrogen comes from wind, geothermal, nuclear, solar, or fossil. What I care about is that each local economy plays to its strength". That's fine if consumers are prepared to ignore fuel costs when buying the vehicle. And my guess is they won't. Hydrogen is not cheap. Its price is a major barrier that GM and others must hurdle. Indeed the cheapest hydrogen - from fossil fuels - is still perhaps 10 or 11 times more expensive than conventional diesel or gasoline and 5 times cheaper than clean, green electrically generated h2. That's why the hydrogen future - for now - is more black than green. Texas-based windpower, already the cheapest in the world, is set for further expansion. Yesterday the Texas Senate approved a massive increase in renewable power. With just a third of the population of the UK, it already has 40% more windpower at 1400 MW, with a new mandate increasing that to 5880 MW by 2015. So why is Texas windpower so inexpensive? It's the much lower subsidy married to some geological features, ridges, that accelerate wind speed. The US-based Production Tax Credit costs between 1.5 and 1.8 cents per kilowatt hour. This translates into a contracted price between the operator and the electricity supplier at under US 3 cents a kilowatt hour, or just under 5 cents with the PTC added back in. Meanwhile Britain and particularly Germany hand out subsidies perhaps 4 times higher, making it less and less popular to the consumer, and notably, the politician. The irony - for Europeans - is that in Texas the Renewables Portfolio Standard was originally passed by Governor George Bush in 1998 and Texan Republicans are driving it today. As well they might, it's no longer a European Industry. Just take a look at these listed stocks, General Electric - now the 2nd largest manufacturer in the world of wind turbines and the globe's largest wind farm operator - Florida Power and Light. If climate drove the uptake in alternative energy, then Saudia Arabia would be the solar electric capital of the world. Several studies have shown that all of the world's electricity consumption could easily be met by solar panels in the Saudi Desert. But Saudi doesn't do that because local fossil fuels are even cheaper and that's my point. For alternative energy, just like most other industries, economics trump everything else, every time. Take Europe for example and how the solar thermal market plays out there . . . In the latest survey by the European Solar Thermal Industry Association Germany and Austria outpace by far the hotter European Mediterranean Countries (apart from Greece) per capita in their domestic penetration of solar powered hot water. This is principally because they can afford it and perhaps more importantly, they believe in it. So this is Europe's Solar Paradox. Don't think you'll find solar power in Europe most where the sun shines most. There may even a be a reverse correlation. And the same observation can be made right across the world. A classic example here of how 3 listed Wind Energy stocks are working together to drive uptake in alternative energy. Repower Systems AG, who make the world's largest commercially available wind turbines at 5 MW, have just signed a contract with Scottish Southern Energy and Talisman for a sale of two 5 MW units, to be located off the coast of Scotland. In Windpower, size matters because by doubling the size of the windswept area, the amount of power increases by 8 times. This also means that the maintenance cost per megawatt declines significantly. Going offshore is important for the future of the industry too. Virtually no planning constraints, higher windspeeds and when the costs are recouped - admittedly after a longer time than onshore - cheaper and higher availability electricity. Welcome to AltEnergyInvestor. My name is Dan Lewis and I will be writing daily posts, occasional articles and generally pontificating on alternative energy and the world of alternative energy stocks. Partnering with me on this site is Dotmarketer, a very smart technology leader in blog marketing, who will also be taking care of the look and feel of this site. This is an emerging industry at the start of a long boom. Rising fuel prices, rising environmental standards and pent-up energy demand are all coalescing to create an enormous wall of money going into alternative energy. But what are the different types of alternative energy, where are the stocks you can invest in and what are the underlying drivers for each sector? These questions and more I have been working on for several years and now I want to share the answers with you. Along the way, there will be new technology breakthroughs and new corporations while some other companies will be left behind and may even fold. But it will be capital markets, not governments that make the biggest investments. You will be hearing about this and more on AltEnergyInvestor. I will not be giving any financial advice; buy this, sell that or hold on. I'll just be telling you what I think and reporting on news stories from day to day from around the world for you to use or discard as you think fit. So once again, welcome to the cutting edge of the new energy future, www.altenergyinvestor.org paving the way for a cleaner, richer tomorrow. |

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